Voter’s Turnout and Democratic Consolidation: A Case Study of 2015/2019
Chapter One
Objective of the Study
The main objective of the study is to;
- To examine the impact of low voters turnout on democratic consolidation in Nigeria.
- To determine the effect of election violence on voters’ turnout.
- To examine the role of the electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on voters’ turnout during elections.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The main focus of an academic research paper is to develop a new argument. Therefore, it is necessary to summarize and synthesize the arguments and ideas of other authors in the field of research; to establish a picture of what this research is about. Voters’ participation in elections in Nigeria particularly since the advent of democracy in 1999 has been the subject of scholarly writing. A critical review of scholarly work provides useful methodological insights for the study as well as a lacuna that needs to be filled.
Literature Review
Arriving at a consensus on the true meaning of political participation has remained unattainable as new conventions are being added to the subject matter on seasonal bases. Scholars have however attempted to conceptualize the meaning of political participation in different ways as reviewed in this chapter.
On its most basic level, voter turnout simply refers to the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. Roberts, (2009) conceives voter turnout as the total number of people that vote in a given election, sometimes given as a percentage. Defining turnout as the share of the population that has cast its votes is correct but not necessarily complete. Geys (2006) opines that, when turnout is defined as a share of “the population”, a clear operationalization of the population variable is also needed. The ratio of the number of voters to the entire population, to the population of voting age, to the eligible population or people registered to vote must be considered. This affects the size of – and quite likely also the variation in turnout rates and may thus affect the estimation results. The number of electorates who turn out to vote for their government is important in understanding people’s political participation.
According to Stanford University political scientists Adam Bonica and Michael McFaul, there is a consensus among political scientists that “democracies perform better when more people vote.” (Washington Post, 2018). Low turnout is usually considered to be undesirable. As a result, there have been many efforts to increase voter turnout and encourage participation in the political process. Emphasizing on the importance of voter turnout in a democracy Kuenzi and Lambright, (2007) argue that, because democracy in its most fundamental sense is “rule by the people,” the proportion of the citizenry expressing its preferences through voting is of interest. While high voter turnout is a desirable indicator of participatory democracy and legitimacy of a current system, low voter turnout is an expression of dissatisfaction on the part of the voting public with the status quo or an indication of political apathy (Chinsinga, 2006). In spite of significant study into the issue, scholars are divided on the reasons for the decline. Its cause has been attributed to a wide array of economic, demographic, cultural, technological, and institutional factors.
Recently, several scholars have considered the possibility that perceived benefit includes not only a personal interest in the outcome, but also a concern for the welfare of others in the society (or at least other members of one’s favorite group or party (Jankowski, 2002; Edlin, Andrew and Kaplan, 2007). In particular, experiments in which subject altruism was measured using a dictator game showed that concern for the well-being of others is a major factor in predicting turnout (Fowler, 2006); and political participation (Fowler and Kam, 2007).
In literal terms, political participation is the involvement of every member, organization and groups in a nation in the entire political process. Political participation is the process through which the individual plays a role in the political life of his society and has the opportunity to take part in deciding what common goals of the society are and the best way of achieving these goals (Adelekan, 2010). The individual is central in this system and can exist as a sole entity or part of a group. The political setup is not complete with the leaders in governance but the people which are core aspect of the society in any political system especially democracy. The leaders does not decide what the people wants, it is the people that decide what they need at any given point in time. Thus, the people do not only decide the national values but decides who should govern them. Akamare, 2003 (cited in Falade, 2014) clearly defined political participation is an aspect of political behavior and it focuses on the way in which individuals take part in politics. It is a voluntary activity and one may participate directly or indirectly. It is central to note that political participation is not by compulsion. Forcing someone to participate in an electoral process for instance is tantamount to breach of the electoral act. The individual as a free moral agent is at liberty to participate based on his or her choice. More so, he or she can determine the degree of participation, directly or indirectly; it is thus common to see people turn out for voter registration and refuse to turn up for voting.
In another perspective, Awolowo and Aluko (2010) stressed that, the essence of political participation in any society, either civilized or primitive, is to seek control of power, acquisition of power and to influence decision making. Political participation is a means of contributing ones quota to the political system and overall development of the nation. In Awolowo and Aluko’s perspective, political participation is viewed from the point of view of wanting to lead or govern the people. The perspective and scope of political participation is wide and can be viewed from two ends; the desire of the individual to select who governs them and the desire of other individuals to govern the people.
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Design
The study adopts the descriptive survey research design. This is so, because survey technique helps in determining the opinions, attitudes, preferences and perceptions of persons of interest to the researcher. The survey methodology studies the sampling of individual units from a population and associated technique of survey data collections, such as questionnaire construction and methods for improving the number and accuracy of responses to survey. This method involves selecting and studying samples chosen from the population to discover the relative incidences, distributions and interrelations of variables.
The success of the research is dependent on the representativeness of samples with respect to the target population. Survey method usually seeks information to be used for problem solving rather than for hypothesis testing.
The Study Area
The study area is Akwa Ibom State. Akwa Ibom is a state in Nigeria. It is located in the coastal southern part of the country, lying between latitudes 40 32’N and 50 33’N, and longitudes 70 25’E and 80 25’E. The state is located in the South-South geopolitical zone, and is bordered on the east by Cross River State, on the west by Rivers State and Abia State, and on the south by the Atlantic Ocean and the southernmost tip of Cross River State. The study area which is Akwa Ibom State comprises of three senatorial districts of Uyo, Ikot Ekpene and Eket (Wikipedia, 2009).
Population of the Study
Population according to Bryman and Bell (2011) is the universe of units from which a sample is to be selected. In other words, all elements, individuals, or units that meets the selection criteria for a group to be studied, and from which the representative sample is taken for detailed examination. The study population comprises of all adult citizens that are eligible to vote, and had voted in the just concluded 2015 and 2019 general elections.
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
This chapter focuses on presenting the data gathered in this study, while analyzing same. The researcher administered a total of 300 copies of questionnaires, but 273 copies were processed and returned at the end of the exercise, which represent 100% of the completed copies. The analysis below is based on the total number of questionnaire returned. The data is thereby presented and analyzed.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Summary
The study examined the impacts of low voters’ in democratic consolidation in Nigeria. Descriptive survey design method was adopted in the study, while questionnaires were administered to the respondents that made up the study population. The questionnaires were retrieved and analyzed at the end of the exercise. The responses from the respondents indicated that, there is an existence of voter apathy in Nigeria. Going by the statistics from INEC and the figures from the responses of the respondents of the study, it is clear that, the disenchantment and passive feelings displayed by the electorates is primarily responsible for the low voter turnout at the 2015 and 2019 General Elections. Election violence and other anti-political activities have also been identified as the major reasons why voter apathy is always on the increase in Nigeria.
Conclusion
There is evidence that there exists voter apathy in Nigeria leading to a steady decline in the voter turnout at elections. This study reveals that, lack of interest and commitment to electoral processes by the electorates is due to lack of confidence in the electoral process and the political culture in Nigeria. A political culture characterized by violence, intimidation, manipulation and deception is reflected in the electorates shunning the ballot. The paper also reveals that Nigerians do not have confidence in their political leaders due to undelivered campaign promises and non-responsiveness to the needs of the masses. Security challenges in some rural communities were seen to be a reason for low voter turnout. It was apparent that the level of political participation in Nigeria has risen, due to involvement of people either directly or indirectly in political activities and decision making process or even influencing political decisions. But despite the level of political consciousness and interest of the election people had in Nigeria, the voter turnout was virtually low, especially as compared with the previous elections in Nigeria.
Recommendations
In a process of consolidating democratic principles and a modified political culture and orientation especially in voting behavior and political participation, the following recommendations are proffered in the study:
- The electoral body (INEC) should be given more power and thoroughly separated with the executive arm of the government. It must be truly independent and autonomous, carrying out its functions without government influence. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should conduct free, fair and credible elections to avert post-election violence. Courts should set out definite time frame to conclude election related litigations as well as entertaining election related cases on merit rather than on technicalities.
- Elections should be made free, fair and credible to enable voters build confidence in the electorate and to see election as an agent of change. This will go a long way in increasing voters’ turnout.
- Political party reform is an indispensable tool in dealing with voters’ apathy. Political parties should develop policies that address the needs of the people. Party candidates should abstain from making promises they know fully well that they will not be able to keep.
- Absolute political socialization is indispensable. Reorientation of people, more and proper political values of national interest and patriotism. Identifying with Nigeria first before your family is something that Nigerians lack and must be inculcated.
- Votes of the people must count. The use of card reader must be consolidated, more technological support should be deployed and more election monitoring, observatory mission and election materials must be well protected and preserved. This is to allow for free and fair elections to hold, in order to attract more political participation and representation within Nigeria’s political environment.
- There should be severe sanctions put in place to punish supporters or perpetrators of electoral violence to serve as deterrent to others. Civil society groups, religions leaders and other non-governmental organizations within the state should encourage high voter turnout. This should be accompanied by credible electoral process through which peoples’ vote counts.
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