The Phenomenon of Hype in the Promotion of Broadcast Programmes: a Study of Brother Naija
CHAPTER ONE
OBJECTIVES OF STUDY
- To access the effect of hype of social media platforms on the increased outspoken new of those who hold minority opinions.
- To assess the effect of freedom of opinion on the promotion of BBN.
- To determine if hype has any effects on the opinion of the masses towards BBN.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
This literature review examines two primary areas of research relevant to this topic. First, it examines the relevant history of the spiral of silence theory as a contextual backdrop for the arguments put forth. Then, it examines recent research on the context of computer-mediated communication and its effect on the spiral of silence, examining weaknesses in research methodology and scope and opportunities for improved learnings.
Theoretical Basis
The spiral of silence theory was first published in 1973 by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann and is grounded in more than two decades of primary and investigative research that built on 200 years of research and understanding about public opinion and influences (Noelle-Neumann, 1977, p. 64). Her research – framed around the hypothesis of silence (p. 1) – is both a cultural criticism and a scientific pursuit of understanding. The longstanding theory construct on which she based her research is framed around four principles:
- People covet popularity, and fear being ostracized for their beliefs.
- People observe the environment around them constantly to avoid conflict and improve popularity.
- There are variations on the strength of one’s belief – a concept she refers to as “liquid” and “solid” belief conditions.
- Perception of increased support for one’s position leads to increased outspokenness on the issue by the individual (Noelle-Neumann, 1977).
Noelle-Neumann’s theory was initially tested in the context of German political elections, a theme replicated frequently in subsequent studies by both Noelle-Neumann and later researchers. As a result, the theory is often thought of as a political communication theory, when it was intended by Noelle-Neumann to be applicable to all instances of mass media theory and research (Anderson, 2006).
The Literature
The spiral of silence theory is not without its detractors and criticism of the theory is leveled in three distinct categories (Scheufele and Moy, 2000). The first of these questions whether fear of isolation is sufficient enough grounds to discourage speaking out on a topic. The second criticism questions the external validity of the Asch conformity experiments common to early empirical studies of the theory (Glynn & McLeod, 1985, Price & Allen, 1990, Salmon & Kline, 1985) which are not of concern for this paper. Of the three categories of criticism, it is the third that is of the most interest for this work. This category challenges that the spiral of silence may not be fully explained by a national climate of opinion on a topic, suggesting that there are other influences on individual beliefs beyond popular opinion (Glynn & Park, 1997). This study will serve to advance understanding about this last category of criticism, addressing both understanding of the spiral of silence and the emerging role of social publishing as an influence on opinion.
One such criticism that warrants examination for our purpose here studied the tendency towards political outspokenness against the spiral of silence. The theory itself states that people will forego doing the right thing in favor of doing the good thing, good being defined as “that which does not isolate one socially” (Lasorsa, 1991, p. 132). Lasorsa’s criticism is leveled plainly at perceptions of the role of mass media in the spiral of silence, that they represent a constant rather than a variable. In fact, Lasorsa argues that media is indeed a variable, and he designed his research around that concept (Lasorsa, 1991). His hypothesis confirmed within the limited scope of his study that media is indeed a variable point of influence and does not retain characteristics of a constant input. Importantly, the study was conducted 25 years ago in only in one city which makes it a good historical study, but one must question its applicability in today’s fragmented media environment.
CHAPTER THREE
METHODOLOGY
The expanse of research that tests various attributes of the spiral of silence provides a complex backdrop against which to prepare this research methodology. Many of the studies rely on quantitative deductive research designs sampled in a college population. The methodology selected for this study is a randomized experimental study that replicates the research design of McDevitt, Kiousis & Wahl-Jorgensen (2003). That methodology was selected as it reproduced a real-world discussion scenario to induce realistic conversation between participants within the medium in question. In the pursuit of understanding about the spiral of silence and for the purposes of this study, one should generally accept the logic that replacing hypothetical opinion variables with actual discussion and interaction should result in a more relevant and real-world findings.
Additionally, it is clear from the established body of knowledge that the ability of researchers to observe and measure social publishing behavior is improved by increasing the synchronicity – or real-time – discussions about a topic between participants. This study used that construct to study opinions with simple pre and post-test results. Further, it used the medium of social publishing (blogs, Twitter, YouTube, etc.) to test information uptake and the impact of that content on the opinions of participants by establishing control and test groups. Therefore, this study consisted of four groups of randomly selected individuals each to provide a bivariate approach; two of the groups participated in online discussions and two participated in real-world discussions. One group from each discussion setting had access to social media and hence the hype of the broadcast program, while the remaining two groups were not given such information. Thus, the research strives to establish a linkage between how the hype information people receive on social media impacts their opinion forming. This linkage is intended to be identified in part by contrasting the behavior of the experimental groups with that of the control group who will receive no access to information. All discussions were pre-tested and post-tested via a brief online survey.
CHAPTER FOUR
THE STUDY
Data Analysis
All data from this study was gathered using discrete SurveyMonkey instruments in pre- post fashion. Survey instruments were customized to each study group but comprised of the same measures and questions to provide the most reliable results. Each study group consisted of eight randomly-selected individuals who completed the entire study, keeping the demographics in each study the same in the pre- and post-test environments. No significant demographic differences were recorded among the four study groups. For the two test groups, a question was added to the post-test survey to confirm that they had received and reviewed the BBN content on the blog site and all participants confirmed. Data was gathered over a two-week period in March, 2010 among participants in Enugu, Nigeria. Basic notes were kept by the focus group moderators about discussion times for various moderation questions that were used to guide analysis of the research (for example, correlating a heavily debated topic with its associated survey questions).
Results of the Study
Opinion data was compared between studies to investigate associations relevant to the hypotheses. Survey questions were framed around the concept of current “hype” and based on current press coverage about the effect of hype on promotion of BBN. These questions were written in a controversial tone by design. Initial topic research that indicated the majority opinion on the topic – that BBN is unfit for public viewership as it contains adult scenes – and the minority opinion – a belief that BBN is educational– were both confirmed by the pre-test results and established the foundation for analysis of shifts in sentiment in the post-test results.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARIES AND CONCLUSIONS
Limitations of the Study
The threats to the internal validity of this study stem from natural differences in group- forming dynamics and the associated impact on both the independent and dependent variables in the study. In truth, this threat is a natural component of the spiral of silence and illustrates the wide variance in individual personality and group communication dynamics. Each test or control was conducted among only one group and should be replicated with additional groups in the future to derive more objective findings. Additionally, the limited sample size in each group resulted in the demonstration of patterns and trends, but was insufficient for a full analysis of that data to derive outcomes against the hypotheses.
External validity threats included the impact of the topic chosen to frame the study. The research was designed to use real-world discussion environments and a topical discussion category (Hype and the promotion of BBN) to spark a vibrant group discussion. In reality, the chosen topic can cause a wide variance in participation. A second threat to external validity arose from not using real-world settings to frame the discussion. As the discussions and research design are an artificial communication environment, communication behavior may be impacted. Lastly, the participant pool was chosen from individuals living in the Los Angeles metropolitan area and could skew both understanding of the chosen topic as well as the group-forming behaviors.
Future Study Recommendations
The research design for this paper is intended to be easily replicated by future research teams to enable further research and discovery of the spiral of silence theory. To overcome the threats to internal and external validity, future studies should include multiple groups within each test and control group, and pull participants from varying geographies and backgrounds. Future research should increase the size of each group to improve internal validity.
Additionally, selection of a topic should take into account the criticisms of the original spiral of silence theory – namely, that there are other influences on the promotion of broadcast programs than just the national climate of opinion on a topic. Thus, topics such as politics might have less household awareness or topical knowledge than a programme on adult behavior. Future studies should span a longer period of time and study shifts in opinion over time on the topic to achieve the most reliable results.
Conclusion
Overall, this study was designed to take a fresh and scientific approach to studying the intersection of the spiral of silence and hype on social media, while using a research design cognizant of the criticisms of the empirical studies of the theory. Ultimately, while the beginnings of some trends and patterns emerged from the study, overall the research did not support the hypotheses in a statistically significant way. There was little variance between the control and test groups for either online or in-person discussions, and it was not confirmed that the hype on Tumblr blog impacted perceptions or opinions about the chosen topic. There was limited evidence to support the hypothesis that hype alter opinions on a topic, but further research would be needed to assess the comparative impact of traditional media versus social publishing to determine the relevance of this finding to the spiral of silence. As a result, there is limited evidence to support the logic that the spiral of silence is altered by the nature of social media environments. This alternate research methodology bolsters critics of the spiral of silence by demonstrating the complexity of measuring and assessing public opinion over a period of time in real-world settings.
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