Statistical Analysis on Motor Accident in Oyo State {a Case Study of Federal Road Safety Commission, Eleyele Ibadan Oyo State. From 2002-2011}

Statistical Analysis on Motor Accident in Oyo State {a Case Study of Federal Road Safety Commission, Eleyele Ibadan Oyo State. From 2002-2011}

Chapter One

AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this research project is to study and analyze the number of fatal and minor accident in Oyo state. The objectives of the project are as follows:

1. To know the relationship that exists between the fatal and minor accident on time.
2. To test for linearity of regression using ANOVA analysis.
3. To test for the degree of relationship between fatal and minor accident on time.
4. To know if there is any difference between the mean of fatal and minor accident
5. To make forecast on fatal and minor accident.
6. To make suitable recommendations after the analysis.

CHAPTER TWO

 LITERATURE REVIEW

On motor accident in Oyo state granted their automobile to handle minor road hazards such as pot holes or rail road trucks, these minor road hazard are, problems for motorcycle because these hazards may require sudden changes of lane position and direction. Accidents due to motorcycle, ridding especially in developing countries like Nigeria increase every year dues to the fact that motorcyclist do not follow the traffic rules and they in their mentality believe they are the king on the roads F.R.S.C further stated that motorcycle crashes are more likely to occur on certain time especially raining season, in Nigeria, raining season is a result of the various pot holes and wobbles motions on deformed roads, the motorcyclist lose control of their motorcycles and collision with on coming vehicles may occur often factors responsible as identified by frsc include break failure, control of the motorcycle is lost when the break fails and their by resulted in an accident. Motor accident is believe to affect the quality of life and to have major social an d economic consequences. It causes may be a combination of human errors and failures, poor road signs adverse road condition and vehicle defects. It was noted that the most important age of human factor are the age of age of the motorcyclist medical fitness of the motorcyclist, alcoholic consumption pattern, fatigue, mental status and educational level various factors are associated with accidents including high speed driving drivers negligence is another major contribution factor to accidents and these includes recklessness during improper overtaking and disregard for traffic light. Nigeria attested to the fact that motorcycle has higher fertility rate per unit of distance travelled when compared with automobiles, this is because motorcycles rides are otherwise refers to as exposed road user. It is further stated that motorcycle accident in Oyo state Nigeria are caused by riders disobedience to traffic rules and regulation. In the time past various law were enacted by federal, state and local government to curb the excesses of the riders this includes the national road traffic regulation. And FRSC establishment act 2001 to mention but view with all this put in place, it still disheartening that motorcycle crashes are still recorded daily in Oyo state, Nigeria factors responsible for incessant rise of motorcycle accident in Oyo state as noted by Oyo state sector command include the following disobedience to traffic rules overloading by carrying more than required passenger under influence of alcohol which affects the riders judgment, riding the cars with worn-out tyres, break failure accounted for motorcycle accidents due to lost of control, lack of accessories like rear mirror functional horn and head lamp, route violation, facing oncoming vehicle that is riding against the traffic and riding motorcycle without sent boit which account 95% permanent injury and death of motor accident victims.

Eze, (2012) stated that road traffic accidents occur when a vehicle collides with another vehicle, pedestrian, animal, road debris, or other stationary obstruction, such as a tree or utility pole. Worldwide, road traffic accidents lead to death and disability as well as financial cost to both society and the individual involved. Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death in adolescents and young adults worldwide. Every year, according to statistics, about 1.2 million people are known to die in road accidents worldwide and others sustain severe injuries, while others suffer permanent disabilities due to number of fatal and serious cases of road accident Olushina, (2012). Nearly three-quarters of road deaths occur in developing countries with 80% casualties Oderoet al., (1997). In Nigeria, the increasing loss of lives on the road has become a worrisome experience. In 2006, about 4,944 deaths occurred in 9,114 road crashes with 17,390 persons injured. The situation in 2007 was 4,673 killed in 8,477 crashes leaving 17,794 injured. In Ekiti, Kogi and Kwara state, a total of 498 and 391 people died in the year 2006 and 2007 respectively which resulted from 402 and 413 crashes respectively Omidiji and Ibitoye, (2010).

CAUSES OF ROAD ACCIDENT

According to Eze, (2013), the causes of road traffic accidents are multi-factorial. These factors can be divided broadly into

1. Drivering factors
2. Vehicle factors
3. Roadway factors.

 Driver factors: Driver factors solely contribute to about 57 per cent of road traffic accidents and 93 per cent either alone or in combination with other factors. Driver’s factors in road traffic accidents are all factors related to drivers and other road users. This may include driver’s behaviour, visibility, auditory acuity, decision making ability and reaction speed. Drug and alcohol use while driving is an obvious predictor of road traffic accident, road traffic injury and death. Speeding, travelling too fast for prevailing conditions or above the speed limit, is also a driver factor that contributes to road traffic accidents. The risk of being injured increases exponentially with speed much faster than the average speed.

Vehicle factors: The severity of injury depends on the vehicle speed change at impact and transfer of kinetic energy. Though vehicles travelling slower than average speed are also at increased risk of road traffic accidents, most involve speed too fast for the conditions. Many studies had been carried out on: causes and preventive measures of road accidents (Agbonkheseet al., (2013), effect of visual ability of commercial drivers Oladehindeetal., (2007). Many agree that in the case of highways and road ways, crashes are not just a matter of luck or misfortune, but a combination of multiple conditions or actions. In this study the term “crash” or “collision” will be used in lieu of the term “accident”.

Roadway factors: Astrom et al, (2006) stated Accident is defined as anything which happens by chance, anything occurring unexpectedly and un-designed Odugbemi, (2010). Road traffic accident is a collision or similar incident involving a moving vehicle, resulting in property damage, personal injury or death. Road traffic accident is an unexpected phenomenon that occurs as a result of the use or operation of vehicles including bicycles and handcarts on the public highways and roads. Accidents may be fatal, resulting in deaths of the road users (passengers, drivers or pedestrians), or minor when it is not severe enough as to cause substantial hardship Sarin, (2000).

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CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Data refers to facts, information raw materials or non – numerical perception and observation made by human being and machines which by themselves may be interpreted to mean many things or nothing to people. Data is very important in any statistical analysis without which statistical inference cannot drawn Data are required to answer a variety of question in any sphere of life.

Data may be inform of numeric i.e quantitative data e.g counting, measuring, observing the phenomenon of interest and it can also be inform of non – numeric i.e. qualitative data.

 TYPES AND SOURCES OF DATA

Basically statistical data could be classified into two they are primary data and secondary data.

Primary Data:  These are data collected for a specific purpose and used for that purpose. These data collected and published by the organization or agency responsible for producing such as information activities as service to the nation economic and political uplifting and planning it also generated in raw data from respondents upon the conduct of an oral written in review or thought any other method by a researcher.

SOURCES OF PRIMARY DATA

1. Census
2. Sample survey
3. Contrived experiment

METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

This method of data collection includes:

1. Observation method: This entails observers recording what take place at a point in time while it is happening. This implies that no interview is involved. In the strict sense observant implies the use of the eye rather than that of the ears and the voice. This method is applicable for instance in traffic censuses statistical quality control and laboratory experiments.
2. Personal interview: This method allow for an interviewer or enumerator to ask questions from respondents directly that is person to person. The main work of the enumerator is to locate or identify the target respondent develop a report obtain interviews ask question and record the answers or responses as instructed.
3. Telephone interview: This method entails obtaining information from respondent through the use of telephone. The method of collecting information by conducting interview through the use of telephone instead of face – to – face verbal conversation. The method in question enables the interviewers to clarify question if they are not understood.
4. Result of experiment:This method is of greater interest to the production engineers’ agronomist and other applied scientists than to the man.
5. Document or report:document or reports tends to contain information which can be supplemented by data obtained by other methods such as observation, mail questionnaire and interviewing. It is dealing with fact figures by the appropriate collection of statistical data. Data are numerical information; for the purpose of drawing reasonable degree of collection could be over emphasized. This data could be collected by the researcher himself or could rely on readymade data by someone else which may be public of agency. EG NBS, CBN, NBD, NEWSPAPER, MAGAZINES, FILES, RECORD ETC.
6. Electronic (internet)method of data collection: This method involves sending a list of question by mail or post to respondent with the use of computer e.g. World Wide Web (WWW). Wide area network vast amount of data generated daily through this means.
7. Postal questionnaire method:In this method questionnaire are mailed to respondents who record their responses and mail back these questionnaires to the researcher. This takes the form of a list question sent by post.

CHAPTER FOUR

PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

This chapter will establish all the research tools reviewed in the previous chapter in analyzing and presenting the data collected so as to draw reasonable conclusion.

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

From the analysis carried out so far on the data collected using the analytical tool explained in chapter four.

1. The regression analysis of fatal accident and time is y = -112.7 + 157.2{x}, indicate that for a unit change in time there will be a corresponding increase of 157 in fatal accident. Similarly the value of a = -122.73 indicate the approximated value where time is zero. The test for linearity of regression equation shows that there is linear relationship between fatal accidents and time.
2. The regression analysis of minor accident and time is y = 31.2 + 20.5{x} indicate that for a unit change in time there will be a corresponding increase of 21 in minor accident, similarly the value of a = 31.2 indicate estimated value when time is zero. The test for linearity of regression equation shows there is no linear relationship between minor accidents and time.
3. The correlation analysis of fatal accident and time r = 0.76 shows that there is a strong positive relationship between the fatal accident and time. The co-efficient of determination of fatal accident and time r²= 57 it shows that 57% of fatal accident can be explained by time while 43% can be explained by other factors. The test for correlation significant between fatal accident and time shows that the correlation is significant. Since TcalTtab_.
4. The correlation analysis of minor accident and time r = 0.58 shows that there is a strong positive relationship between the minor accident and time. The co-efficient of determination of minor accident and time r²= 33 it shows that 33% of minor accident can be explained by time while 67% can be explained by other factors. The test for correlation significant between minor accident and time shows that the correlation co-efficient is not significant. Since Tcal  
5. The comparative test analysis between fatal and minor accident shows that the there is significance difference between fatal and minor accidents. Since TcalTt
6. We forecast for the future of fatal accident for the next ten years shows that there will be an increase in the number of fatal accident.

RECCOMENDATIONS

On the basis of my findings in the research, the following recommendation deserves consideration as to reduce the rate of road accident.

1. Government should establish standard training school for drivers both private and commercial so as to curb the ignorance about highway traffic regulations.
2. The sign of zebra crossing, road traffic police should be made available where necessary for effective flow of traffic.
3. In other to curb the high degree of illiteracy which is common amongst drivers a minimum of primary six certificates should be obtained for insurance of driving license by Government. This will enable the drivers to understand road sign and symbols.
4. Patrol team should be on highways to check offenders among motorist.
5. Drivers should avoid drinks and drugs while driving.
6. R.S.C should restore the compulsory wearing of Creech helmets for motorcyclist as a means of reducing death and serious head injuries.
7. The Government should embark on constructing of bad road concrete, steel crash barriers and over head bridge.

  CONCLUSION

Road traffic accident in Nigeria has not received theattention warranted considering the magnitude of theproblem. There is need to view road traffic accidentas an issue that needs urgent attention aimed atreducing the health, social and economic impacts.’Safe road’ in Nigeria is more of changing our drivingbehavior than just blaming the government alone andadvocating for good road infrastructure

REFERENCES

• Aderamo, A. J., (2012). Spatial Pattern of Road Traffic Accident Casualties in Nigeria.Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 3(2): 61 – 72. Agbonkhese, O, Yisa, G. L., Agbonkhese, E. G, Akanbi, D. O, Aka, E.O, and Mondigba, E.B., (2013). Road Traffic Accidents in Nigeria: Causes and Preventive Measure. Civil andEnvironmental Research, 3(13): 90-99.
• Atubi, A.O., (2010). Road Traffic Accident Variations in Lagos State, Nigeria: A Synopsis ofVariance Spectra. An international Multi-Disciplinary Journal, Ethiopia,4(2): 197-218.
• Atubi, A.O, (2012). A Monthly Analysis of road Traffic Accident in Selected Local GovernmentAreas of Lagos state, Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 3(11): 47- 62.
• Charles, O. B., Olafunmilayo, I.F., Afolabi, E.B., Lola, V.A, Ronke, A and Aderonke, M. B.,
• (2007). Risk factors for road traffic accidents among drivers of public institutions inIbadan, Nigeria.African Journal of Health Sciences, 14(3-4): 136 – 142.
• Eze , B. (2012). Road Traffic Accidents in Nigeria: A Public Health Problem. Afrimedic Journal3(2): 35-36.FRSC, (2009).Federal Road Safety Commission Annual Report.
• Muibi. F. A, (1986). Toward Improving Road Traffic Safety in Nigeria.ITE Journal, 29 – 32.
• Ndefo O., (2012). Causes of Highway Failure in Nigeria.International Journal of Engineeringand Technology, 4(11): 4695 – 4704.
• Odero W., Garner P. and Zwi A., (1997). Road injuries in developing countries: a Comprehensivereview of Epidemiological Studies. Tropical Medicine and International Health, 2(5):445 – 460.
• Ogunmodede, T.O, Adio G, Ebijuwa, A.S, Oyetola, S.O, and Akinola, J.O, (2012). Factors
• influencing high rate of Commercial Motorcycle accidents in Nigeria. AmericanInternational Journal of Contemporary Research.2(11): 130 – 141.

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