Statistical Analysis on Monthly Consumption of Water Supply (a Case Study of Urban Water Board Minna)
Chapter One
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
The purpose of the study is to statistically analyze the monthly consumption of water supply; also the purpose of the study includes the following.
- To explain role of statistical analysis on monthly consumption of Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB)
- To study the rate at which is consumed in the past years
- To suggests ways of improving the statistical analysis on monthly consumption of water supply.
- To measure the characteristic movement and calculated the trend by method of moving average and least square.
Once these have been identified, it would be very easy to forecast for the years ahead to prevent inadequate water supply.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Naturally, before the creation of the universe, water once covered the whole face of the earth after which the separation and creation of the earth.
Geographically, it is known that water covers about 75 percent of the whole earth. The importance in geography as well as the “Rains” obtains from evaporation of other water bodies. The water bodies are home for fish which are of immense food source to man. Biologically, water constitute three quarter of the body, and make possible the transportation of food, though the blood, digestive, movement of joints, possibility of speech, the movement of the product from our bodies etc.
From the ongoing we can deduce the importance of water consumption, like it has been said, no food we ever take without the presence of water, one might think of eating grains though mastication but would forget that swallowing it enable by the mixture with saliva. The enzymes that help human in digestion process are made up of water.
The quality of water consumed ought to meet a standard that is devoid of infection of man’s consumption the source water could be rivers, rain and water works. All others seem natural means though some are non – made except the established water works, which is purely man – made. The supply of water need to be treated with more than average condition, considering the role place and the importance of water to the existence of life, this need to be a high quality of purified water.
According to John Baylis (1917) from the user’s part of view the term water quality is used to define those chemical, physical, biological, or radiological characteristics by which he evaluate the acceptability of water. The quality of rainwater may or not be acceptable to the year. If it is unsatisfactory, a treatment plant can be design to produce acceptable quality water then the term “quality’ must therefore be considered relative to the proposed used of water.
The field of water resources in a state of change as attempt is made to define the various qualities of water necessary for each of this many uses.
If one considers water from the abstract point of view and superimposes the problem of inadequate amount of high quality water, it seems quite logical to place all it uses in order of their importance. Water for human consumption would come first. This would be followed by all other uses including carriage of waste unfortunately; the same water that is used for human consumption is also used for lowest level purpose that of flushing waste to a point of disposal.
From the above, the supply of water not only in its sense by good one should be first in any schedule.
John Baylis also assert ‘In the past the water supply industry in many region has been quite fortunate to have been able to obtain adequate quantities of rain water of good quality even though it sometimes had to be transmitted across long distance. In future, there will be many instance where a water utility will have to accept water of lower quality and treat it as necessary to produce water meeting the consumer’s needs. As a result, water quality acquires increased significance and man must define part has been quite subjective during development of our society.
Dr. Graham Walton made us to know the historical needs for water quality criteria historically; fertile river valley with abundant water seems to have been the centers for the beginning of civilization.
The greatest use of water was for irrigation and agriculture pursuits while only a small amount was consumed by people. The use of water for drinking and cooking was limited to that amount that people could carry from the well or the stream in the jugs, pots and other vessels.
CHAPTER THREE
THE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES
Time series is sets of observation taken at a specified, time usually at equally interval of time this analysis consist of things such as description of component movement present.
Time series analysis is a statistical method which helps in understanding past behavior of social and economic variable based on the observation of collected data taken at different time interval. In time series analysis, time is the most important factor because the variable are always recruited with time which may be either year, months, weeks, days, hours, minutes or seconds.
In this dispensation, the basic items underlying time series in the systematic influence, which are associated with time affecting series value.
The objective of this time series is to identify and measure the influence of the different time related factors. A situation where separated, factors are identified such as understanding can be used to interpret historical events and also forecast this future behavior.
CHARACTERISTICS MOVEMENT OF TIME SERIES
Time series has certain characteristics movements, which are presented in ringing degrees. Analysis of such movement is of great value in many connections one of these is forecasting future time movement. It should therefore come as no surprise that many industries and government agencies are concerned with this important subject. This are classified into four main parts which otherwise known as the components of time series these are:
CHAPTER FOUR
PRESENTATION OF DATA
Table 4.1 below shows the data on monthly supply of water in millions of litters from 2006 – 2014
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
It is noted that through regression analysis T = 311.8 + 6t, I was able to forecast the future trend for the years 1998 – 2006. Also from the tested hypothesis, it was found that our calculated value was 1.82 while the critical value was 7.82, since the χ2cal. < χ2tab. At 5% level of significant, we accept the null hypothesis, that no significant difference between the monthly consumption of water from 2007 – 2014.
Using the graphs obtained on original data (y) and its trend (T), original data and deseasonalized data, original data and it forecasted data and the graph on forecasted and its forecasted trend. It was found that there are sharp rises and sharp fall in the first three graphs, which indicated that there is significant difference between the monthly consumption of water. In this dispensation, the null hypothesis does not agree with the graphical theorem. In this perspective, the researcher was able to detect the fluctuation in the monthly consumption of water from 2007 – 2014.
CONCLUSION
From the review of the result and findings the authorities of Urban Water Board Should be called upon to make adequate supply of water.
However, most communities require water for daily consumption; this water gives almost 80% of human daily activities such as hospitals, schools, and government parastatas and in household.
Hence, it is concluded that water serves as medicine for daily consumption for human being. Due to the better use to the environment, the people derived joy, pleasure in using water. In this case, it is noted that reducing the consumption rates of water is demanding a situation whereby the price of water increase automatically, this consuming.
RECOMMENDATION
From the analysis, it will be recommended that Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB) should site more station as well as uniformity in current supply.
Also, the Niger State Urban Water Board should construct more reservoirs because it discovered that there is depreciation in the quality of water produces. Therefore, skillful workers should also be employed to maintain facilities and accuracy.
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