Statistical Analysis of Incidence of HIV/AIDS Pandemic in Nigeria From 1996 – 2005
Chapter One
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- To find how the pandemic affect different age classes and class making the highest contribution toward the measuring response.
- To determine if the HIV/AIDS cases occur more in females than males
- To establish the trend of reported cases of HIV/AIDS pandemic in Nigeria
- To forecast the expected number of HIV/AIDS victims in Nigeria in the next three (3) years.
- To infer valid conclusion about HIV/AIDS in Nigeria and make necessary recommendation in a way to further reducing it.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Nigeria donbted the existence of HIV/AIDS for some years after the discovery of its presence in 1981.
The physical effect notwithstanding some attributed unsightly appearance of victims in the mass media to propaganda by the Western World to stop them from enjoying sex.
Government to was hukewarm toward evolving a clear policy thrust to tackle the pandemic which has affected and killed million. However, the current real campaign against the disease become necessary following the alarming effect on the population, tested and verified cases.
Nigeria with a population of 112, 156, 197 in 1999 had in infection ralt of 0.02 per minute. The former Minister Of Health Dr. Tim Menakaya to the 44th National Council on Health (NCH) October 7, 1999. That by the joint Nations Programme on Aids (UNAIDS) one Nigerian is infected every minute of 24 hours a day.
He also stressed the need for political support believing Dr. J.O.A. Abulaka of Mediorest specialist Hospital, Gwagwala, Abuja among other claims of cure for HIV/AIDS could only be supported after scientific verification. This he did on National Television Programme Newsline, to clarify government position following controversy on the veracity of the Abalaka’s claim. This can be viewed in the light of social health and economic conflicts, HIV/AIDS has unleashed on the Nigeria population. The expectation therefore from primary health care and disease control, federal ministry of health responsible for grass root health provisions was an increased awareness campaign.
This awareness did not go beyond advocating the use of condom or abstinence. But the repeated escalation of the pandemic and out cry by the public, experts and international organization woke government from its bureaucratic compliance. The former Minister of Health, Professor Debo Adeyemi at the 43rd Nigerian Council on Health Conference Bauchi, October 1998, maintained government philosophy of social justice. This amongst others include bright, full and equal opportunities for all, including HIV/AIDS patients. T his might in the light of basic freedom in a democratic Nigeria oppose the theme by joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). It was termed “force for change, world AIDS campaign with young”. However, viewed and despite controversy in government, private or individual efforts to fight the disease generally is high. But there have not enough mobilization of youth energy in the fight against HIV/AIDS. Of course, relying on data effective on health social and economic indices in the country, one is certain about lack of youth co-operation.
A state of complete physical, mental and social well being marks the absence of disease or disability, therefore an individual is termed healthy. By estimation about 750,000 mother – to – child infection of HIV occur globally annually. Therefore, Nigerians is under serious threat from birth. The sub – Sahara African rates higher at 15 – 40% with the possible means of transmission through uterus, during delivery and breast-feeding. The baby risk premature delivery, coupled with maternal included HIV diseases.
Controversial and dangerous statistics courtesy of the world AIDS campaign 2003/2004 substantiate the utmost need for the theme “face for change”. These followed a joint ministerial press briefing attended by the ministers of Health, Education, Youth and Sports, Women Affairs and Social Development, also hosting information and culture. The ministerial array recognized endangered young people age 15 – 24, representing 1/3rd of 33 million ill-hearted people worldwide.
Given this scenario, there are bound to be pressure in developing countries so reported, (Uganda, Zimbabwe, Kenya and Zambia etc) implying Nigeria also. There are relevant exposition on sub-Saharan Africa reputed as way be one of the most infested region of the world. This is of course with attendant or AIDS related disease like tuberculosis amongst other aggrevatable and contiguous ones. In real, the pandemic has put pressure so much on primary health delivery programme in Nigeria particularly such that infant and adult health are under series threat. Also the stigma of AIDS is devasting for the individual, group or community. Individual is perceived a homosexual, drug user and by some unfortunate circumstance a victim of infected blood transfusion or heterosexuality. Victims are wrongly regarded first class sinners of adultery and fornication therefore they are met with divine punishment.
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
THE KRUSKAL – WALLIS MULTIPLE COMPARISM TEST
This test is based on a test statistic computed from ranks determined for poded sample observations rather than the observation themselves.
This is an alternative non – parametric procedure for one factor analysis that may be used when the assumptions of the t – test are not satisfied and also the assumption groups involved.
PROCEDURE TO FOLLOW IN USING KRUSKAL – WALLIS
- Combine all observation in a single sample of size n = n1+ n2+ – – – – nk
- Arrange in order of magnitude either from largest to smallest or from smallest to largest observations. Tied observations are assigned their mean ranks.
- Sum the ranks assigned to each of the k samples separately.
- Then complete the test statistic.
k
H = 12 å R2i – 3 (n + 1)
N (n + 1) i=1 ni
Where Ri is the sum of ranks assigned to observations in the ith group, for i = 1, 2, – – – -, k ni is the number of observations in the ith group.
Then the test statistic has a chi-square distribution with (k – I) degrees of freedom. Hence, the null hypothesis is rejected at the a level of significance if H ³ X21-a, k – 1 and is accepted otherwise X21-a, k-1 is the critical chi-square value.
THE SIGN TEST
This is used when equal samples drawn from two population either independently or as matched pairs, and the assumptions underlying the t – test are not satisfied or where we have only one population and interest is a testing that its mean has some specified value but our data do not satisfy the assumption of normality to enable us to use the t – test.
In these cases, the hypothesis to be tested usually involve the median rather than the mean. Sign test considers only the signs of the difference.
TEST OF GOODNESS OF FIT
This is used when a researcher may wish to find out whether the observed frequencies in a sample of nominal scale data are consistent with the frequencies that one would expect to obtain if the data were generated under some particular theory or hypothesis. For example, we may wish to determine whether or not a sample of observed values of some random variable are consistent with the hypothesis that the sample was drawn from a population that is normally distributed.
CHAPTER FOUR
ANALYSIS OF DATA
This chapter is mainly concerned with the analysis of the data collected in incidence of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION
From the statistical analysis performed, the following findings were made:
- That there are significant differences in the age distribution of people living with HIV/AIDS in Nigeria.
- People in age intervals 20 – 24, 15 –19, 25 –29 are mostly affected, accounting for 17%, 16% and 15% respectively.
- That the occurrence rate of HIV/AIDS cases is not the same for females and males, in all age groups, females recorded higher number of cases.
- That reported cases of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria are on a steady rise. Based on the estimated exponential growth rate of 14% per annum; the number of people living with HIV/AIDS in Nigeria is expected to rise to 10.52 million by the year 2010.
- In 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2009, the population of Nigerians that will be living with HIV/AIDS will be 5.90, 6.82, 7.88 and 9.10 million persons respectively.
RECOMMENDATION
This project work reveals on alarming trend of HIV/AIDS pandemic in Nigeria. The impact of this scourge is better imagined, as it is devastating mostly the productive age class 15 – 40. If not checked, this will lead to ill – health in the society, decrease in population, frustration and early deaths; therefore:
– Some specific measures should be adopted such as provision of safe blood transfusion, AIDS education programme and educating youth through peer education.
– Men and women should change their sexual behaviour and make sure all blades and skin piercing instruments are sterilized.
– Parents should wake up to their responsibility towards their children by laying sound developmental foundation of social, religious and moral values in the early ages thus ensuring that no communication gap exists at any stage of their development.
– Pre-marital and pre-pregnancy HIV testing should be widely promoted and supported by regular use of condom.
– Employment opportunities should be provided for youths to discourage their indulgence in prostitution and drug abuse due to frustration.
– Couples must open up to each other and begin t o discuss the issues of HIV/AIDS more frankly to avert the tradedy of child, mother and father infection.
– The federal, state and local governments must decidedly address the issue of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria more seriously.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Arabs Janlomi. R. Epidermiology of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria (1990)
- Janat M. The AIDS Emergency UNIC (1999), Vol. 1 Pg 2.
- Eki Osarenoma George, Alobo Isi Stanley: AIDS; Facts everyone should know
- Fawole O.I Economic and Societal Impact of HIV/AIDS (1999) British medical Association London.
- Pius U. Ugwu Digestive Principle and Techniques of Statistics (2003)
- Chuks I. AIDS and Nigeria, Tell Editorial Pg. 6, Sept, 1997.
- World AIDS Campaign Report (2004) World Health UNAIDS The new 26th November 2000
- Mr. Nwagbara Lecture Note on 323 Experimental Design (2005)
