Statistical Analysis of Criminal Offences Recorded in Kuje – Abuja (FCT) From 1999 – 2007 (A Case Study of Kuje Police Divisional Headquarters, Abuja)
Chapter One
GENERAL AND SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
The general aim of this study is to estimate the rate of crime and use it to forecast the future condition.
- To estimate the model concerning crime rate
- To test the normality of the model (using normal probability plot) in order to see if the data can be used for the analysis
- To forecast the future cases of crime using time series model
- To suggest the possible means of eradicating crime.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE
The rate at which crime is increasing and being committed has drawn the attention of many philosophers, moralists, theologians, sociologists etc and they view crime from many angles. To the theologians and moralists, crime is a “SIN” to the sociologist; crime may be viewed as “any abnormal behavior which deviated from general trends observed by a particular society (i.e. social deviance).
From a legal point of view, crime may be viewed as a violation of the criminal law such law deals with actions considered harmful to the society and the law considered them crimes because they frighten the society. For this reason, a crime is regarded as an offense against a state.
As act can be viewed as crime if and only if enough evidence exists to convince the policeman, prosecutor, or judge believe that violation of the criminal law has taken place. However, the law does not consider an accused person as criminal unless a judge or a jury find him/her guilty. The criminal may be imprisoned or receive some other punishment according to the laws of the community in which the crime was committed or the trial was held. A person who commits any crime is called criminology while experts i.e. people who read or study crimes are called criminologists.
A social psychology book written by SHARON S. BREHIM (1994) say “a crime is capable of rendering a generation hopeless”. Come to think of it, someone you really care for deeply, it might be a parent, a special lecturer, your family or even your best friend. Imagine that this person was taken away from your forever due to the crime he / she committed. Imagine how many other people would suffer because of the loss of this individual.
In the book titled “Menace of Child Abuse” by FEINS (1997), the child who grew up in an abused family not only witness but often ends up as a criminal, prostitute among others. Tragically, it is not only a rare occurrence, it is estimated that each year in Nigeria over one million children are abused physically and over 150,000 are sexually abused. The National Survey Data indicated in 2002 that over 60% present criminal are less than 30 years of age. At least 2000 children are jailed each year, 5 die each day in jail. National Cetre on child abuse and neglect (1999) conclude that the available evidence struggle that children are more involved in crime than adults.
“Manace of Alcohol and Drug” by BUSHMAN and COOPER K. stated that “alcohol and drug can potentially lead one into crime”. Some conditions make it more difficult to engage in the higher order processing that can exhibit aggressive impulse. High arousal for example, impairs the cognitive control of aggression, so does drugs and alcohol is implicated is the majority of violent crime, suicide among others. Taking drugs or alcohol disrupt the way we process information. For example, CLAUDE STEELE ROBERTS JOSEPH (1990) proposed that intoxication causes alcohol myopic i.e.
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research methodology is a process whereby a research is carried out i.e. the method used to collect data which would be used on the subject matter. Statistical procedures have been used in collecting and analyzing data used in this project, by data, it means basic raw materials for statistical investigation and analysis pertaining to a specific area. Data collecting process is the gathering of information for the purpose of investigation and inquiry. Most often, the information we use for analysis are scattered in various documents. As a result of this, we collect that information from a single place or document and extract the one that is relevant t our analysis, for instance, the data collected and used in this project were from a single document, moreover, the data collected for this project has been presented on a tabular form which is a statistical procedure.
METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
The method of data collection used in this project work is a secondary data from the records and documents of Kuje area council divisional Headquarters FCT – Abuja. They are secondary data.
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
DATA PRESENTATION
Presentation of data is a way of presenting the information obtained in a study in such a way that some of its characteristics can be clearly seen.
CHAPTER FIVE
CONCLUSION AND INTERPRETATION
CONCLUSION
- From the trend line equation y = a + bx It shows that the rate of crime recorded in Kuje – Abuja is decreasing and will continue to decrease if and only if the measures by the law enforcement agencies remain constant.
- The above normal probability plot shows that the lines are fit for the data.
- The model estimated was Yt = 464.0 – 43.2500 x t, it indicate that on the average there was a decrease of approximately 43 cases of crime in every year.
- The model estimated can be used for further research e.g. forecast because summation of the residual is 05. The forecast show a decrease of crime in the next five years
RECOMMENDATION
From the conclusion made so far, I will like to recommend that government should therefore consider the following:
- Cost of Living: This influences committing a crime. The government should therefore take necessary steps to make cost of living work while for people by reducing the prices of commodities.
- Government should endeavour to build more schools in order to improve the condition of learning so that the student will feel ease and pay maximum attention to their studies as this will reduce the rate of drop out which will in turn reduce the rate of crime.
- Police and law enforcement agencies should be well equipped to fight crime by providing a good salary scheme and good training facilities.
- Government should make sure laws are strictly observed, just as the 21st century rainbow coalition against corruption, a non-government organization on 11th June 2003 in Punch Newspaper asked president Olusegun Obasanjo not to spare anybody (Nigeria) in his bid eradicate and collect crime rate.
REFERENCES
- Murray R. Spiegel Schaum’s Series Statistics, 1st Edition.
- Abdullazeez S. A. Onah, H.O.D Umar S. S. Fundamental of Statistics, C. B. Gubta (1981), Introduction to Statistical Methods, 9th Edition.
- Park Idris and Berth Oshionebo (1998) Practical Guide to Thesis and Project Work, Biyi Afonjo, 1982 Ibadan Introductory Statistics
