Socio-economic Effect of Population Growth in Nigeria
Chapter One
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The objectives of the study are;
- To ascertain the causes of Continuous increase in population
- To ascertain the relationship between socio-economic effect and population growth
- To ascertain the effect of socio-economic on population growth
CHAPTER TWO
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
There is a marked difference in the models of technological and economic growth proposed by Malthus (Malthus and Smith 1798) and later Solow, which allow for no per capita growth of income as capital is fixed. However, later models do allow for per capital economic growth and appear to fit the observable conditions in the recent past. The Malthusian model is considered accurate in pre-industrial societies but fails to work correctly in industrialized environments. To reconcile the differences between the two fundamental environments, some have created multiphase models which allow for Malthusian, Post-Malthusian and finally Modern regimes, (Galor and Weil 1998) whilst others such as Simon-Steinmann (Simon 1986) have created two models, one of each of the two stylized named the More and Less Developed Countries (MDC and LDC respectively) (Simon 1977), effectively treating the two groups as distinctly separate. The rationale behind this distinction is that a ―demographic transition‖ has occurred in one (the MDC) and is now beginning to occur in the LDC nations but under different circumstance. Most of these circumstances are economic in nature and the tacit assumption is that economics is the driving force behind the transition and not the other way around as has been suggested by Knodel and Van De Walle (Greenhalgh 1995). In the case of Galor- Weil model, there appears to be an assumption that today‘s economic world is different from the one that Malthus observed. Simon does not explicitly make this assumption but also does not deal with any historical perspective earlier than the industrial revolution other than anecdotal evidence of Greece and Rome in “The Ultimate Resource”, in part due to lack of economic data. Assuming that today‘s economic environment is operating using the same mechanisms as before, there is a question that needs an answer. Do current growth models accurately portray not just trends of population and economic growth but also elucidate the mechanisms by which the economic growth occurs? Based on the need for multi-phase models and separate handling of different types of economies, there is a good chance they do not. As well, Simon dismisses the effect of demographic anomalies on the short-term economics of nations in favour of long-term trends. He specifically dismisses the impact of age-structure and dependency ratio on economic growth as minimal compared to that of the level chosen for the savings rate (Simon 1977). What he does not deal with is the possible effect the age-structure and other demographic dynamics may have on the saving rate. Assuming there is a demographic effect on the level of investment, then it only stands to reason that these population dynamics have an effect on the short-term and long-term economic growth of the economy. Due to speed of the current demographic transition in LDC nations, these effects may be exacerbated and causing current observable conditions to appear different from those conditions leading to the wealth of the MDC nations.Using a simplified illustration based on current anthropological theory, the framework for the link between population growth, population size, carrying capacity of the land and economic growth will be explored. This possible link may also help elucidate some of the possible mechanisms for economic growth; something which Simon does little of, as he tends to approach the subject from the standpoint of having the model match known trends.
Simon-Steinmann Economic Growth Model : The basic idea to the theory proposed by Julian Simon and Gunter Steinmann is that the greater the total population, the greater the level of technological growth yielding the greater the per capita income. An idea derived from Boserup (Simon 1977), which Simon refers to as the ―Population Push‖ model, and distinguishes between current knowledge and knowledge being applied for production.Underlying the population push model of technological development is the added idea that technology can and does develop independent of population growth (learning-by-doing) and therefore technology builds upon itself, reconciling the pull and push models of technological progress. So even in the case of a static population, there will be some level of technological advancement, albeit slower than in situations of growing population. It is just necessity remains the mother to, and is the primary force behind, invention. This technological progress function is added to the Douglas-Cobb production function to produce a model containing endogenous technological progress based on population growth and learning-by-doing. One other aspect of note in his model is that labuor supply and population are used synonymously as he dismisses the impact of age-structure and dependency ratio on economic growth as minimal to the effect of the savings rate. He uses Japan and the US as an example of the disparity between savings rate and the effect it has on output (Simon 1977). The results of the model yield modest per capita economic growth at equilibrium and Simon determines that maximized long term economic growth (always in per capita terms unless otherwise noted) requires 1-2% per annum population growth and a 2-4% rate of savings with a low discount rate below 4%. At a higher discount rate of 5-10% there was still increased consumption. This population growth rate, he makes clear, is higher than the rate that produces the highest adoption of technology (Simon 1986).
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research design
The researcher used descriptive research survey design in building up this project work the choice of this research design was considered appropriate because of its advantages of identifying attributes of a large population from a group of individuals. The design was suitable for the study as the study sought to socio-economic effect of population growth in Nigeria
Sources of data collection
Data were collected from two main sources namely:
(i)Primary source and
(ii)Secondary source
Primary source:
These are materials of statistical investigation which were collected by the research for a particular purpose. They can be obtained through a survey, observation questionnaire or as experiment; the researcher has adopted the questionnaire method for this study.
Secondary source:
These are data from textbook Journal handset etc. they arise as byproducts of the same other purposes. Example administration, various other unpublished works and write ups were also used.
Population of the study
Population of a study is a group of persons or aggregate items, things the researcher is interested in getting information on socio-economic effect of population growth in Nigeria. 200 selected residents in Dekina Local Government Area was selected randomly by the researcher as the population of the study.
CHAPTER FOUR
PRESENTATION ANALYSIS INTERPRETATION OF DATA
Introduction
Efforts will be made at this stage to present, analyze and interpret the data collected during the field survey. This presentation will be based on the responses from the completed questionnaires. The result of this exercise will be summarized in tabular forms for easy references and analysis. It will also show answers to questions relating to the research questions for this research study. The researcher employed simple percentage in the analysis.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
Introduction
It is important to ascertain that the objective of this study was to ascertain socio-economic effect of population growth in Nigeria
In the preceding chapter, the relevant data collected for this study were presented, critically analyzed and appropriate interpretation given. In this chapter, certain recommendations made which in the opinion of the researcher will be of benefits in addressing the challenges of socio-economic effect of population growth in Nigeria
Summary
This study was on socio-economic effect of population growth in Nigeria. Three objectives were raised which included: To ascertain the causes of Continuous increase in population, to ascertain the relationship between socio-economic effect and population growth, to ascertain the effect of socio-economic on population growth. In line with these objectives, two research hypotheses were formulated and two null hypotheses were posited. The total population for the study is 200 selected residents of Dekina Local Government Area, Kogi state. The researcher used questionnaires as the instrument for the data collection. Descriptive Survey research design was adopted for this study. A total of 133 respondents made up civil servants, married men, youths and students were used for the study. The data collected were presented in tables and analyzed using simple percentages and frequencies
Conclusion
This study examines the impact of population growth on economic growth. Our conclusions are that economic growth formed a significant relationship with population growth. The existing state of knowledge does warrant any clear-cut generalization as to effect of population growth on economic growth in today‘s less developed countries. The actual evidence on thee association between growth of population and economic growth not point to any uniform conclusion. But it is possible that the effect of population growth on economic growth rates, densities, and income levels as do today‘s less developed countries. Clearly, there is need for more intensive research on the actual experience of nations, currently and in the past.
Recommendation
From our analysis, for population growth to positively impact on economic growth, one idea would be to let the level of per capital technology to increase. This will lead to better resource utilization in the economy. Savings rate of Nigerians should increase as this will be used to invest in more research and new techniques. Each of these techniques being a less than perfect substitute requiring more labour or resource of a different, more labour intensive type and therefore added more value added services to the production. This continues to add to the total output at a higher rate than population growth, raising per capital out as a result. Government should make concerted effort to check population growth rate. Any population growth that occurs too fast will have diminishing returns or create a circumstance where economic growth is stagnating. Policy- makers need to be careful too when trying to influence the economy through changes in macroeconomic variables such as money supply or interest rate. While aiming to correct macroeconomic ills such as inflation or unemployment. They may inadvertently depress economic growth.
References
- Adewole, A. O. (2012). Effect of population on economic development in Nigeria: A quantitative assessment. International Journal of Physical and Social Sciences, 2(5), 1-14.
- Afzal, M. (2009). Population growth and economic development in Pakistan. The Open Demography Journal, 2, 01-07.
- Agarwal, S. (2014). Impact of India’s population growth on economic development. Paripex Indian journal of research, 3(5).
- Ali, S., Ali, A., & Amin, A. (2013). The Impact of Population Growth on Economic Development in Pakistan. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 18(4), 483-491.
- Atanda, A. A., Aminu, S. B., & Alimi, O. Y. (2012). The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries.
- Bangladesh Economic, R. (2015). (Various). Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Hu, L., Liu, Y., Mahal, A., & Yip, W. (2010). The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38(1), 17-33.
- Bloom, D. E., & Freeman, R. B. (1988). Economic development and the timing and components of population growth. Journal of Policy Modeling, 10(1), 57-81.
- Boserup, E. (1981). Population and technological change: A study of long-term trends.
- Bureau, P. R. (2013). World Population Data Sheet, New York.
