INVESTIGATION INTO THE CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE
TABLE OF CONTENT
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
1.2 Statement of the Problem
1.3 Research Objectives
1.4 Research Questions
1.5 Significance of the Study
1.6 Scope of the Study
1.7 Limitation of the study
1.8 Research Methodology
1.9 Organization of the study
CHAPTER TWO
CAUSES OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE
2.1 Overview of the Invasion
2.2 Causes of the Invasion
2.3 Putin and Russia’s Imperial Identity
CHAPTER THREE
THE EFFECT OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
3.1 Impact of the Invasion on Ukraine and Russia
3.2 Impact on the global economy
3.2.1 Global supply chain disruption
3.2.2 Rising oil and gas prices
3.2.3 Effect on the global banking system
3.2.4 Decline in economic output and growth
3.2.5 Effect on global stock markets
3.2.6 Rising global inflation and cost of living
3.2.7 Increased food and energy insecurity
CHAPTER FOUR
RESPONSE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO THE INVASION
4.1 International Responses to the Invasion
4.2 European Union Reaction to the Invasion
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary
5.2 Conclusion
5.3 Recommendations
REFERENCES
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
The Ukraine conflict is arguably one of the most divisive issues in international politics right now. The prolonged conflict has begun to touch and influence the foreign and security policy of Europe and the rest of the world (Mearsheimer, 2014:6). Historically speaking, since declaring independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has been caught between two worlds: the East and the West.
Ukrainians have divergent views on the country’s future unity, particularly in regards to whether or not to align with the West or to keep the link with Russia, casting doubt on the country’s very national character (Zuiderveld, 2015). The Orange Revolution began in 2004, with the primary impetus for the upheaval being public outcry about the government’s failure to democratize the country and combat rampant corruption.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point in the geopolitical landscape of Europe and the world. The annexation of Crimea and the subsequent conflict in eastern Ukraine have had significant political, economic, and humanitarian consequences for Ukraine, Russia, and the international community (Cornell, 2022). The invasion has triggered one of the most significant confrontations between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War, leading to economic sanctions, political isolation, and military aid to Ukraine (Cornell, 2022).
Scholars, policymakers, and analysts have been trying to understand the complex and multifaceted causes and effects of the invasion. The invasion has been widely discussed and debated, with different narratives and interpretations emerging from different actors involved (Darden, 2022). Some argue that the invasion was a response to the political instability in Ukraine, while others view it as an attempt by Russia to reassert its power and influence in the region. Understanding the causes and effects of the invasion is crucial for managing the crisis and preventing future conflicts.
The fall of the ‘Iron Curtain’ meant significant territorial losses for Russia through the detachment of republics from the former USSR, loss of resources and markets and especially the abandonment (considered humiliating for the Russian establishment and a large part of the population) of world superpower status (Paul, 2022). The 1990s, which by Western standards should have led to Russia’s democratization, the establishment of civil liberties and a market economy, has in fact led to institutional chaos and widespread corruption. The year 1999 marked the coming to power of Vladimir Putin and his loyal KGB team, with strong popular support for a change of state affairs (Motyl, 2022).
The early years of this century were marked by attempts at rapprochement between Russia and the West, through EU association projects and treaties to reduce strategic weapons and ballistic missiles. In 2008, Russia proposed a new European Security Treaty on the principle of ‘no dividing lines’ that sought to stop NATO membership for former Soviet republics (Taylor, 2022). The West’s lack of reaction to Russia’s demands for respect for its political sphere of influence, as well as the West’s suspicions of Russia’s neo-imperialist ambitions, together with indirect military conflict in Syria, have led to irreparable relations and escalation of a new Cold War (Teorell, 2022).
Since returning as president in 2012, Putin has made significant changes in terms of military doctrine and political rhetoric, as well as concrete preparations for future armed conflicts (Teorell, 2022). The year 2013 marked the competition between the EU and Russia to lure the Ukraine into one of two major projects: the European Union or the Eurasian Economic Union promoted by Moscow.
Under pressure from Moscow, the then Ukrainian president suspended negotiations with the EU, but what the Russian media claimed was a major victory for Russia’s grand Eurasian plan was called into question by the Kyiv revolution known as the Euromaidan (Donnelly, 2022). Under the spectre of the return to power of the representatives of the pro-Western Orange Revolution, the centrifugal movement of the former Soviet republics and thus the collapse of all his revisionist and expansionist plans, Putin made the decision to annex Crimea in March 2014.
The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is therefore a clear consequence of Russia’s new military doctrine and Putin’s imperialist plans (Donnelly, 2022). Although all these plans were public, the West did not react and did not prepare a coherent response until the annexation of Crimea. However, it is difficult to take seriously the ambitions of a country whose GDP is almost as much as Spain’s, crushed by corruption, with a poorly equipped army and an economy dependent almost exclusively on the West and the export of raw materials, but still the owner of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world (Fouskas, 2022).
During Yanukovych’s president, the lease on Russia’s naval station in Sevastopol (the Crimean Peninsula) was extended until 2042, despite president Yushchenko’s prior attempts to seize this strategically and economically important port. The agreement was reached in return for price reductions on Russian gas imported into Ukraine (Mearsheimer, 2021). Hence, many of the oligarchs who dominate Ukraine’s economy (it was stated that the wealth of the wealthiest hundred Ukrainians was comparable to 23 percent of the country’s GDP (Datskevych, 2019) and have economic ties with the Russian government, banks, corporations, and so on.
However, their impact on the current battle will be examined later. The question to be raised now is why is Ukraine’s sovereignty under jeopardy now more than ever? Putin ensures that his foreign policy acts are in accordance with international law, or seem to be in accordance with international law(Zwolski,2020). Despite the fact that the majority of UN members do not recognize Crimea as Russian, the peninsula is effectively administered by Russia (Fouskas, 2022). The conflict in Donbass is more difficult; yet, the precedent created by Russia’s annexation of Crimea calls into doubt Putin’s future foreign policy actions in relation to Ukraine and its sovereignty. Hence the need to peruse into the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Russia has launched a large-scale military offensive on Ukraine, after declaring Donetsk and Luhansk to be independent nations. It hardly needs to be said that Russia is breaking international law defying the UN Charter’s ban on the use of force, the need to respect other nations’ sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the prohibition on involvement. Russia, on the other hand, is defending its conduct with legalese. Some efforts at legal reasoning may be found in President Vladimir Putin’s recent statements, but they do not hold up to examination. The invasion has triggered one of the most significant confrontations between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War, leading to economic sanctions, political isolation, and military aid to Ukraine.
Scholars, policymakers, and analysts have been trying to understand the complex and multifaceted causes and effects of the invasion. However, there is a lack of consensus on the factors that led to the invasion and its impact on Ukraine, Russia, and the international community. This lack of consensus has hindered efforts to manage the crisis effectively and prevent future conflicts in the region.
One of the primary challenges in investigating the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the complexity of the conflict. The conflict is rooted in a long history of cultural, ethnic, and economic ties between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the geopolitical and historical factors that have shaped Russian policy towards Ukraine. Additionally, the conflict involves multiple actors with competing interests, including Ukraine, Russia, the European Union, the United States, and NATO, among others.
Another challenge is the lack of reliable information on the conflict. The conflict has been characterized by propaganda and disinformation campaigns from both sides, making it difficult to ascertain the facts and reach a consensus on the causes and effects of the invasion. Additionally, the conflict has led to restrictions on media freedom and access to information, further complicating efforts to understand the conflict.
The lack of consensus on the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has significant implications for managing the crisis and preventing future conflicts in the region. Without a clear understanding of the factors that led to the invasion, it is challenging to develop effective policies to manage the conflict and prevent similar incidents in the future. Additionally, the lack of consensus has led to tensions and disagreements among key actors involved in the conflict, further complicating efforts to manage the crisis. Therefore, the problem addressed by this research study is to investigate comprehensively the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and provide insights into managing international relations in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
1.3 Research Objectives
The main objective of the study is to examine an investigation of the causes and effects of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, and the specific objectives of the study are:
- To examine the causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- To examine the effect of the Russian invasion on the sovereignty of Ukraine.
- To evaluate the response of the international community to the invasion
1.4 Research Questions
The research adopted the following research questions:
- What are the causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- What are the effects of the Russian invasion on the sovereignty of Ukraine?
- What is the response of the international community to the invasion?
1.5 Significance of the Study
The investigation of the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have significant implications for various stakeholders. The following are some of the significant contributions that this study will make:
Informing policy-making: The study will provide policymakers with a comprehensive understanding of the factors that contributed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the impact of the conflict on Ukraine, Russia, and the international community, and recommendations for resolving the conflict and preventing future escalations. This will inform policy-making at the national and international levels and contribute to the development of more effective strategies for managing international relations and resolving conflicts.
Enhancing public awareness: The study will contribute to enhancing public awareness of the complex geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe and the factors that contribute to conflicts in the region. This will promote informed public discourse and increase public engagement in international affairs.
Supporting academic research: The study will contribute to academic research on conflict and peace studies, international relations, and regional studies. The findings of the study will provide a foundation for future research on the topic and contribute to the advancement in these fields.
1.6 Scope of the Study
The scope of this study on the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is focused on examining the factors that led to the invasion, the military and political events that unfolded during the conflict, and the impact of the invasion on Ukraine, Russia, and the international community. The study will analyze the historical, political, and economic context of the conflict and explore the motivations of the Russian government in carrying out the invasion. The study will also examine the international response to the invasion, including diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the international community.
The study will primarily focus on the period of the 2022 conflict. The research will utilize a variety of primary and secondary sources, including official government reports, news articles, academic literature, and interviews with experts in the field. The study will be conducted through a qualitative research approach, involving a thorough analysis and interpretation of the available data. The geographic scope of the study will primarily focus on the events that occurred in Ukraine and Russia, with a particular emphasis on the political and military dynamics between the two countries. However, the study will also consider the broader international context of the conflict, including the involvement of other countries and the impact of the conflict on global politics and security.
1.7 Limitation of the study
The study is limited by the availability and reliability of data sources. While efforts will be made to gather data from a variety of sources, including official government reports, news articles, and academic literature, it is not be possible to access all relevant information. Additionally, there is limitations to the accuracy and completeness of the available data.
Secondly, the study is limited by the potential for bias in the data sources. Given the politically charged nature of the conflict, it is possible that some sources may have a particular perspective or agenda that could impact the accuracy of the information presented. To mitigate this, efforts was be made to gather information from a range of sources and to critically analyze the validity and reliability of each source.
Also, the study is limited by the scope of the research. While the study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is not possible to consider every aspect of the conflict. As such, certain events or factors may be excluded from the study.
1.8 Research Methodology
Research methodology refers to the various techniques or methods employed by the researcher to conduct the study, as well as the instrument used to collect data. There are numerous relevant research strategies for solving the research issues. In this study, the method of research that is used to collect data and information that is significant is known as historical research, and the method of data collecting that will be utilized in the study is known as descriptive research. This will involve the collection of materials from secondary sources, such as books, journal articles, magazines, internet sources, international and national conference proceedings, published and unpublished articles.
1.9 Organization of the study
The study consisted of five chapters. Chapter one comprised background of the study and a general introduction to the work. It included statement of problem of the study, highlighted the objectives of the study, the scope within which the research was conducted is also highlighted. An outline of how the work is organized is also detailed in the chapter one. The chapter two of the study reviewed the examine the causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chapter three discussed the effect of the Russian invasion on the sovereignty of Ukraine. Chapter four evaluate the response of the international community to the invasion and the chapter five is a summary of the major findings with recommendations and conclusion to the study.
CHAPTER TWO
CAUSES OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE
2.1 Overview of the Invasion
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes the biggest threat to peace and security in Europe since the end of the Cold War. On February 21, 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin gave a bizarre and at times unhinged speech laying out a long list of grievances as justification for the “special military operation” announced the following day. While these grievances included the long-simmering dispute over the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the shape of the post–Cold War security architecture in Europe, the speech centered on a much more fundamental issue: the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity and statehood themselves.
It reflected a worldview Putin had long expressed, emphasizing the deep-seated unity among the Eastern Slavs—Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians, who all trace their origins to the medieval Kyivan Rus commonwealth—and suggesting that the modern states of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus should share a political destiny both today and in the future. The corollary to that view is the claim that distinct Ukrainian and Belarusian identities are the product of foreign manipulation and that, today, the West is following in the footsteps of Russia’s imperial rivals in using Ukraine (and Belarus) as part of an “anti-Russia project.” Throughout Putin’s time in office, Moscow has pursued a policy toward Ukraine and Belarus predicated on the assumption that their respective national identities are artificial—and therefore fragile. Putin’s arguments about foreign enemies promoting Ukrainian (and, in a more diffuse way, Belarusian) identity as part of a geopolitical struggle against Russia echo the way many of his predecessors refused to accept the agency of ordinary people seeking autonomy from tsarist or Soviet domination.
The historically minded Putin often invokes the ideas of thinkers emphasizing the organic unity of the Russian Empire and its people—especially its Slavic, Orthodox core—in a form of what the historian Timothy Snyder calls the “politics of eternity,” the belief in an unchanging historical essence. The salience that Putin and other Russian elites assign to the idea of Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian unity helps explain the origins of the current conflict, notably why Moscow was willing to risk a large-scale war on its borders when neither Ukraine nor NATO posed any military threat. It also suggests that Moscow’s ambitions extend beyond preventing Ukrainian NATO membership and encompass a more thorough aspiration to dominate Ukraine politically, militarily, and economically.
It also helps explain Russia’s military strategy. Moscow appeared to calculate that enough Ukrainians, at least in the eastern part of the country, would accept some form of reintegration into a Russian sphere of influence because of shared cultural, linguistic, religious, and other ties with Russia. Despite pre-war polls showing large numbers of Ukrainians willing to take up arms to defend their country against a Russian invasion, Moscow’s wager was not entirely implausible given the recentness of the shift and the persistence of family and other ties across the Russian-Ukrainian border. Nonetheless, Russia’s war has become bogged down in no small part because this calculation about Ukrainian identity has proven dramatically wrong.
CHAPTER THREE
THE EFFECT OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
3.1 Impact of the Invasion on Ukraine and Russia
The war has caused an enormous humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. Urban centers in many parts of the country have been badly damaged, maritime, road and rail transit have been severely disrupted, and vital economic and social service infrastructure including power generation, digital infrastructure, bridges, and ports has been destroyed or rendered unusable. As of the end of March, nearly 6 million Ukrainians had little or no access to safe water. About 12 million people are estimated to have been displaced as of midApril and a similar number of people—especially the elderly and infirm—urgently require humanitarian assistance (UNHCR 2022).
The war is also substantially eroding human capital. It is likely to have a particularly acute impact on children by increasing malnutrition and stunting, reducing years of schooling, and worsening labor market outcomes (Akresh, Caruso, and Thirumurthy 2022; Acosta et al. 2020). Ukraine’s economy is being devastated. To support the economy and ease pressures on FX reserves and banks, Ukraine imposed emergency financial measures (including capital controls and banking sector restrictions) and announced tax deferrals, while fully meeting domestic and external debt obligations. These measures have helped to prevent financial collapse. Economic activity in Ukraine has been rendered impossible in some areas, with the war destroying a critical amount of productive infrastructure and forcing businesses to close. Goods trade has come to a grinding halt, as damaged transit routes impede shipment by land while the loss of access to the Black Sea cuts off all seaborn trade, which accounts for half of Ukraine’s exports. The war is expected to halve output in 2022, with GDP falling around 45 percent, according to the World Bank’s recently released Europe and Central Asia Update.
CHAPTER FOUR
RESPONSE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO THE INVASION
4.1 International Responses to the Invasion
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent actions, a number of countries have imposed escalating financial, trade, and other sanctions. The extent of these sanctions is unprecedented for an economy of Russia’s size and economic significance. They have been implemented on top of existing sanction.
Financial sanctions. The United States, the European Union (EU), and other countries have imposed blocking sanctions on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR). These prevent the Russian authorities from accessing foreign exchange reserves in the custody of institutions in sanctioning countries, or the liquidation of which would require access to financial systems in sanctioning countries. This amounts to freezing about half of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a complex and multifaceted issue that has been ongoing. This conflict began with the annexation of Crimea by Russia, followed by the outbreak of hostilities in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists. The conflict has since claimed the lives of over 13,000 people and displaced millions, causing a humanitarian crisis in the region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine can be traced back to a number of historical, political, economic, and social factors. One of the main causes is Russia’s desire to maintain its strategic influence in the region and prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the West. This is partly driven by Russia’s fear of encirclement by NATO and the EU, as well as its desire to maintain its access to the Black Sea through the Crimean peninsula. Another major factor is the complex ethnic and linguistic makeup of Ukraine, with a significant Russian-speaking minority in the eastern regions. This has led to tensions between Ukraine’s pro-Western government and the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region. Russia has used this as a pretext to intervene in the conflict, claiming to be protecting the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine. Economic factors have also played a role, with Ukraine’s decision to pursue closer ties with the EU rather than Russia seen as a threat to Russia’s economic interests. This was compounded by Ukraine’s decision to join NATO, which Russia saw as a direct challenge to its national security interests.
5.2 Conclusion
The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a significant event in modern history, one that had far-reaching consequences for the people of Ukraine and the wider region. The investigation into the causes and effects of this conflict has been ongoing, and while there may be disagreements on some of the specifics, there are certain key factors that have emerged as critical in understanding the event.
One of the most important factors was the political climate in Ukraine leading up to the invasion. Ukraine had long been divided between those who favored closer ties with Russia and those who sought to align with the West. The country’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in 2014 after widespread protests erupted over his decision to back out of a deal that would have strengthened ties with the European Union. Yanukovych’s ouster was seen as a victory for the pro-Western camp, but it also sparked outrage among Russia and pro-Russian Ukrainians, who saw it as a Western-backed coup.
Another critical factor was Russia’s own geopolitical ambitions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia had been struggling to maintain its influence in the region. The invasion of Ukraine was seen by many as an attempt by Russia to reassert its dominance in the post-Soviet space. Russia justified its actions by claiming that it was protecting the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, but many saw this as a pretext for intervention.
The invasion itself had a significant impact on both Ukraine and the wider region. The conflict quickly escalated into a full-scale war, with thousands of casualties and widespread destruction. The annexation of Crimea by Russia was a particular point of contention, with many seeing it as a violation of international law. The conflict also had wider geopolitical consequences, with tensions between Russia and the West reaching new heights. The annexation of Crimea led to economic sanctions being imposed on Russia, and there were fears that the conflict could lead to a wider conflict.
In the aftermath of the conflict, Ukraine was left with a host of economic, social, and political challenges. The conflict had a devastating impact on the country’s infrastructure, and many Ukrainians were displaced or lost their homes. The conflict also had wider consequences, with the Ukrainian economy suffering as a result of the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in the east. The country has also struggled with corruption and political instability, which have hampered efforts to rebuild and reform.
The research also explored the global economic effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The paper found that the global economic consequence of the invasion was a global supply chain disruption. This manifested through energy supply shocks, and trade supply shocks. It led to rising energy prices, rising commodity prices, and a rise in food prices, thereby leading to a rise in global inflation in many countries. The implication is that geopolitical conflicts tend to have spillover economic effects to other countries and that such conflicts do not have isolated effects on the sanctioned country. The Russian-Ukraine conflict has shown that sanctions against a warring country is not an optimal solution because it has spillover effects into other countries who are not part of the conflict, especially when the warring countries are trade partners of other countries who are not involved in the war. Political leaders should put in effort to discourage conflicts like the Ukraine Russia conflict, and should use negotiation as a conflict resolution tool. Future studies can assess whether conflict resolution through negotiations are very effective in pacifying countries that go to war to protect their regional influence.
5.3 Recommendations
Based on the investigation into the causes and effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are several recommendations that can be made to prevent similar conflicts from occurring in the future:
Strengthen International Law: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the need for a stronger and more effective international legal framework to prevent the violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations. The international community should work together to strengthen existing legal frameworks, such as the United Nations Charter, and develop new ones to address emerging challenges.
Support Conflict Prevention Measures: To prevent conflicts from escalating into full-blown wars, it is important to support conflict prevention measures. These include early warning mechanisms, diplomatic engagement, and mediation. Governments and civil society organizations should work together to identify potential conflict hotspots and take proactive steps to prevent escalation.
Promote Dialogue and Diplomacy: Diplomatic engagement and dialogue are critical tools for resolving conflicts peacefully. Governments should prioritize diplomacy and invest in building relationships with other nations, particularly those with whom they have strained relations.
Address Root Causes of Conflicts: Conflicts often have underlying causes that must be addressed if they are to be resolved. These may include economic, social, or political factors. Governments should work to address these root causes to prevent conflicts from arising in the first place.
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