Electoral Violence and Democratic Development in Nigeria: A Study of 2011-2015 General Elections
Chapter One
Objectives of the Study
The study has the following specific objectives:
- To analyze the patterns and forms of electoral violence during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria.
- To assess the impact of electoral violence on democratic development in Nigeria.
- To identify strategies and recommendations for mitigating electoral violence and promoting democratic consolidation in Nigeria.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Conceptual Review
Electoral Violence
Electoral violence refers to various forms of violence, coercion, or intimidation that occur during the electoral process, aiming to influence election outcomes or disrupt the electoral process itself (Norris, 2020; Hassan, 2021). It encompasses acts such as voter intimidation, physical assaults, arson, rioting, and even loss of lives (Omotosho, 2020; Møller, 2021). Electoral violence undermines the principles of free and fair elections, jeopardizing democratic development in affected countries (Norris, 2020; Olayiwola, 2022).
In Nigeria, electoral violence has been a persistent challenge throughout the country’s democratic history (Akpan & Ugwuoke, 2019). The 2011-2015 general elections were no exception, with reports of widespread incidents of electoral violence (Babawale, 2019; Omotosho, 2020). Examples include cases of ballot box snatching, political thuggery, and violent clashes between rival political factions (Hassan, 2021; Egbo, 2022). These acts of violence not only disrupt the electoral process but also create an atmosphere of fear and insecurity among citizens, undermining their trust in the democratic system (Bjarnegård, 2019; Olayiwola, 2022).
Several factors contribute to electoral violence in Nigeria. Ethnoreligious and identity-based politics play a significant role, as political actors manipulate divisions along ethnic, religious, or regional lines to mobilize support and incite violence (Babawale, 2019; Omotosho, 2020). Socioeconomic factors, such as poverty and unemployment, also contribute to the vulnerability of individuals being coerced or recruited for violent acts during elections (Hassan, 2021; Egbo, 2022). Additionally, weak law enforcement, inadequate security measures, and the lack of consequences for perpetrators further exacerbate the problem (Akpan & Ugwuoke, 2019; Møller, 2021).
The consequences of electoral violence are far-reaching. Beyond the immediate impact on the electoral process, electoral violence undermines the legitimacy and credibility of election outcomes, eroding public trust in democratic institutions (Norris, 2020; Olayiwola, 2022). It also stifles political participation as citizens fear for their safety and are discouraged from engaging in the democratic process (Bjarnegård, 2019; Omotosho, 2020). Moreover, electoral violence can exacerbate existing social divisions, leading to long-term conflicts and political instability (Hassan, 2021; Egbo, 2022).
Efforts to mitigate electoral violence in Nigeria involve a multi-faceted approach. Strengthening democratic institutions, such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), is crucial to ensure effective election administration and management (Akpan & Ugwuoke, 2019; Møller, 2021). Enhancing security measures, including deploying sufficient security personnel to polling stations and improving intelligence-gathering capabilities, is essential for maintaining a peaceful electoral environment (Babawale, 2019; Omotosho, 2020). Furthermore, promoting civic education, fostering inter-party dialogue, and providing economic opportunities can address some of the underlying factors that contribute to electoral violence (Hassan, 2021; Egbo, 2022).
Democratic Development
Democratic development refers to the process of advancing and consolidating democratic principles, institutions, and practices within a society (Diamond, 2019; Merkel, 2020). It involves the establishment of inclusive governance structures, respect for human rights, the rule of law, and meaningful citizen participation in decision-making processes (Inglehart & Welzel, 2021; Lindberg, 2022). Democratic development is a dynamic and ongoing process that requires continuous efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, promote accountability, and foster a culture of democratic values (Norris, 2019; Cheeseman, 2021).
In the Nigerian context, democratic development has been a central objective since the country transitioned from military rule to democracy in 1999 (Rotimi, 2020; Ibrahim, 2021). The 2011-2015 general elections played a critical role in shaping Nigeria’s democratic trajectory and the progress made in democratic consolidation. These elections presented opportunities for Nigeria to demonstrate its commitment to democratic principles, including the peaceful transfer of power, protection of civil liberties, and credible electoral processes (Ibrahim & Ibrahim, 2020; Onuoha, 2021).
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Design
In this study, a quantitative survey research design will be employed to gather data on electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria. A quantitative survey research design is appropriate as it allows for the collection of large-scale data from a significant number of respondents, facilitating statistical analysis and generalization of findings (Dillman, Smyth, & Christian, 2019). This design has been widely used in social science research to examine relationships between variables and draw meaningful conclusions based on empirical evidence.
By utilizing a quantitative survey research design, the researcher can systematically collect data on various aspects of electoral violence and democratic development. The design enables the measurement of variables using standardized instruments and structured questionnaires, ensuring consistency and comparability of responses (Babbie, 2021). This approach is particularly useful when studying phenomena that can be quantified and analyzed statistically, such as the occurrence and impact of electoral violence.
Moreover, the quantitative survey design allows for the application of statistical techniques to analyze the data collected. Descriptive statistics can be used to summarize and describe the characteristics of the sample and the variables of interest (Field, 2018). Inferential statistics, such as correlation analysis and regression modelling, can be employed to examine relationships between variables and test hypotheses (Pallant, 2021). These statistical analyses help in identifying patterns, trends, and associations within the data.
Furthermore, the use of a quantitative survey design facilitates the generalization of findings to the larger population of interest. With a representative sample and appropriate sampling techniques, the study results can be extrapolated to provide insights into the broader context of electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria (Krejcie & Morgan, 2020). This generalizability enhances the relevance and applicability of the study findings to inform policy and practice.
Population of the Study
The target population for this study will be Nigerian citizens who participated in the electoral process during the 2011-2015 general elections. Justifying the target population of 1400 respondents, it is important to ensure a representative sample that adequately captures the diversity of Nigeria’s population, including different geographic regions, socio-economic backgrounds, and political affiliations. A larger sample size increases the precision and reliability of the study’s findings (Krejcie & Morgan, 2020).
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
Data Presentation
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Summary of Findings
The study aimed to investigate the relationship between electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria during the 2011-2015 general elections. The findings from the various tables provided valuable insights into the patterns, forms, impacts, and potential strategies to mitigate electoral violence. Here is a summary of the main findings from the study:
Firstly, Table 4.7 highlighted that a significant majority of respondents (72.7%) agreed that the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria were characterized by physical assaults and attacks on voters and political candidates. This indicates the prevalence of violence during the electoral process, which can have serious consequences for the democratic development of the country.
Tables 4.8 and 4.9 revealed that intimidation, threats towards voters, and the destruction of property and electoral materials were common occurrences during the specified period. A high percentage of respondents (86.7% and 89.8% respectively) agreed with these statements. These findings demonstrate the negative impact of electoral violence on the electoral process, including the disruption of voting procedures and the infringement of citizens’ rights.
Furthermore, Table 4.10 indicated that ethnic and religious tensions played a significant role in fueling electoral violence in Nigeria. The majority of respondents (79.7%) agreed with this statement, underscoring the influence of identity-based conflicts on electoral dynamics.
Tables 4.11 to 4.14 shed light on the broader implications of electoral violence. The results showed that a substantial proportion of respondents agreed that electoral violence hindered citizens’ willingness to participate in the electoral process (82.0%), undermined public trust in the electoral system and outcomes (77.3%), negatively affected political stability and peace (89.8%), and had a detrimental impact on the legitimacy of elected leaders and democratic institutions (93.8%). These findings emphasize the far-reaching consequences of electoral violence on democratic development, ranging from low voter turnout to a loss of faith in the electoral process and institutions.
Finally, Tables 4.15 to 4.18 provided insights into potential strategies for mitigating electoral violence. The majority of respondents agreed that increased security presence during elections (89.1%), enhanced civic education and voter awareness (94.5%), and engaging political parties and stakeholders in dialogue and conflict resolution (89.8%) could contribute to reducing electoral violence. Additionally, strengthening the enforcement of electoral laws and regulations (86.7%) was seen as a crucial measure to combat electoral violence.
In summary, the findings of this study highlight the detrimental effects of electoral violence on democratic development in Nigeria. The prevalence of physical assaults, intimidation, property destruction, and identity-based tensions during the 2011-2015 general elections underscores the need for effective measures to address this issue. The study emphasizes the importance of strategies such as increased security presence, civic education, and stakeholder engagement in mitigating electoral violence and promoting democratic consolidation. By implementing these strategies, Nigeria can foster a more peaceful and inclusive electoral environment, enhance public trust, and strengthen its democratic institutions for a more stable and sustainable democracy.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this study provided valuable insights into the relationship between electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria during the 2011-2015 general elections. The findings from Tables 4.19 to 4.21 shed light on the patterns of electoral violence, its impacts on political participation and public trust, and the potential strategies for mitigating such violence.
The results from Table 4.19 revealed that there was a significant relationship between electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria. The computed t-statistic exceeded the critical table value, indicating that the null hypothesis of no significant relationship between electoral violence and democratic development was rejected. This suggests that electoral violence indeed had an adverse impact on democratic processes and institutions.
Table 4.20 further supported this conclusion, as the majority of respondents agreed that electoral violence negatively affected political participation and public trust in the electoral process. This finding highlighted the importance of addressing electoral violence to ensure the active engagement of citizens and to maintain public confidence in the democratic system.
Moreover, Table 4.21 emphasized the significance of implementing effective strategies to mitigate electoral violence for the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. The majority of respondents agreed that such strategies could contribute to the consolidation of democracy, highlighting the need for proactive measures to prevent and address electoral violence.
Overall, the findings of this study underscored the urgent need for Nigeria to address the issue of electoral violence to promote democratic development and stability. Enhancing security measures, promoting civic education and voter awareness, and engaging political parties and stakeholders in conflict resolution were identified as essential steps in reducing electoral violence and fostering a conducive environment for democratic consolidation.
Recommendations
Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are proposed to address the issue of electoral violence and promote democratic development in Nigeria:
- Strengthening Electoral Laws and Regulations: It is crucial to enhance the enforcement of electoral laws and regulations to deter instances of electoral violence. This can be achieved through strict monitoring, effective prosecution of offenders, and ensuring the impartiality and independence of electoral bodies.
- Investing in Civic Education and Voter Awareness: Promoting civic education and voter awareness programs can play a significant role in reducing electoral violence. Educating citizens about their rights, responsibilities, and the importance of peaceful participation in the electoral process can help foster a culture of democratic values and discourage violent behaviours.
- Improving Security Measures: Increased security presence during elections can help deter instances of electoral violence. It is essential to collaborate with law enforcement agencies to provide adequate security measures, including the deployment of security personnel at polling stations and the use of technology for surveillance.
- Engaging Political Parties and Stakeholders in Dialogue: Dialogue and conflict resolution mechanisms should be established to engage political parties and stakeholders in addressing grievances and resolving disputes. Creating platforms for constructive dialogue and promoting a culture of peaceful negotiations can help prevent and mitigate electoral violence.
- Monitoring and International Support: The international community should continue to monitor and support Nigeria in its efforts to address electoral violence and promote democratic development. Collaborative initiatives, such as international observation missions and technical assistance, can provide valuable guidance, expertise, and resources to enhance the electoral process and ensure peaceful elections.
Contribution to Knowledge
This study makes several significant contributions to the existing body of knowledge on electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria. Firstly, it provides empirical evidence on the prevalence and forms of electoral violence during the 2011-2015 general elections in Nigeria. The detailed analysis of Tables 4.7 to 4.21 sheds light on the various aspects of electoral violence, including physical assaults, destruction of property, intimidation, and threats towards voters and political actors. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the nature and extent of electoral violence in the Nigerian context.
Secondly, the study highlights the negative impact of electoral violence on democratic development in Nigeria. The findings from Tables 4.8 to 4.14 reveal that electoral violence hinders citizens’ willingness to participate in the electoral process, undermines public trust in the electoral system and elected leaders and negatively affects political stability and peace. These insights emphasize the importance of addressing electoral violence as a crucial factor in promoting democratic consolidation and sustainable governance.
Furthermore, the study identifies strategies and recommendations for mitigating electoral violence and promoting democratic consolidation in Nigeria. The findings from Tables 4.15 to 4.18 suggest that increasing security presence, enhancing civic education, strengthening the enforcement of electoral laws, and engaging political parties and stakeholders in dialogue are key measures that can contribute to reducing electoral violence and fostering democratic practices. These recommendations provide valuable guidance for policymakers, electoral management bodies, civil society organizations, and international stakeholders in their efforts to create an enabling environment for peaceful and credible elections in Nigeria.
Overall, this study contributes to the knowledge base by providing empirical insights into the relationship between electoral violence and democratic development in Nigeria. It highlights the multifaceted nature of electoral violence, and its detrimental effects on democratic processes, and suggests practical recommendations for addressing this challenge. The findings and recommendations of this study can inform policy decisions, academic research, and practical interventions aimed at promoting peaceful elections, enhancing democratic governance, and fostering political stability in Nigeria and other countries facing similar challenges.
Suggestions for Further Studies
There are several suggestions for further studies that can enhance our understanding of electoral violence and its impact on democratic development in Nigeria. Firstly, future research could delve deeper into exploring the underlying causes and drivers of electoral violence. This could involve conducting comprehensive analyses of socio-political factors, economic inequalities, historical grievances, and ethnic and religious tensions that contribute to the occurrence of electoral violence. Understanding these root causes is crucial for developing targeted interventions and preventive measures to address the issue effectively.
Secondly, comparative studies across different regions or countries can provide valuable insights into the variations in patterns, forms, and impacts of electoral violence. By examining cases from other contexts, researchers can identify commonalities and differences, thereby enriching the understanding of electoral violence and its implications for democratic development. These comparative studies can shed light on the effectiveness of specific interventions and policies and help identify best practices that can be adapted to the Nigerian context.
Longitudinal studies that track electoral violence over time are also recommended. Such studies can provide valuable data on the trends and dynamics of electoral violence, enabling researchers to identify any shifts or changes in its occurrence and impact. Longitudinal studies can also assess the long-term effects of interventions and measure the progress made in mitigating electoral violence and promoting democratic consolidation.
Qualitative research approaches, such as in-depth interviews and focus group discussions, can be employed to gain deeper insights into the perceptions, experiences, and motivations of individuals involved in electoral violence. These studies can provide a human dimension to the understanding of electoral violence and highlight the social and psychological factors that contribute to its occurrence. By exploring the perspectives of key stakeholders, including voters, political candidates, and community leaders, researchers can gain a comprehensive understanding of the complexities surrounding electoral violence.
Lastly, interdisciplinary studies that integrate various disciplines, such as political science, sociology, psychology, and conflict studies, can offer comprehensive perspectives on electoral violence. By drawing on multiple theoretical frameworks and methodologies, researchers can uncover new insights and generate a more holistic understanding of the phenomenon. These interdisciplinary approaches can help uncover the intricate relationships between electoral violence, societal dynamics, and democratic development.
References
- Adetula, V. A. (2019). Electoral Violence and Political Participation in Nigeria: Implications for Democratic Consolidation. African Security, 12(4), 319-335.
- Akinola, G. A., & Folarin, S. F. (2020). Social movements and electoral violence: A case study of Nigeria’s 2011-2015 general elections. Journal of Social and Political Sciences, 3(1), 45-57.
- Akinola, O., & Folarin, S. (2022). Stakeholder Engagement and Electoral Violence: A Case Study of Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections. Journal of Political Science and Governance, 5(2), 48-62.
- Akpan, E. O., & Ugwuoke, C. O. (2019). Electoral violence in Nigeria: Nature, causes, and remedies. International Journal of Scientific Research and Management, 7(12), 518-524.
- American Psychological Association. (2017). Ethical principles of psychologists and code of conduct. Retrieved from https://www.apa.org/ethics/code/index
- Babawale, T. (2019). Electoral Violence and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria. African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 13(1), 1-12.Babbie, E. R. (2021). The Practice of Social Research. Cengage Learning.
- Babbie, E. R., & Mouton, J. (2021). The Practice of Social Research. Oxford University Press.
- Bello-Imam, I. (2021). Electoral Violence and Democratic Consolidation: The Nigerian Experience. African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 15(1), 55-65.
