Assessment of Oil and Non-Oil Exports on the Economic of Nigeria From 1995 to 2018
Chapter One
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The objectives of the study are;
- To determine the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on investment in Nigeria.
- To determine the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria.
- To examine the relationship between oil and non-oil exports on real Gross Domestic Product.
CHAPTER TWO
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
Introduction
Several studies have examined the export-led growth hypothesis, findings from the empirical literature point to the possibility of several types of relationships between exports and economic growth. Depending on the econometric model, data frequency, and the country or region studied, export is causing growth, growth is causing export, there is bidirectional causality, and there is no causality, Konya (2004). Shujaat (2012), examined the causal relationship between GDP and exports for the period of 1975 to 2010. The aim of the study is to check affectivity of export promotion policy adopted by Pakistan during 1990s. Johansen test of Co-integration and Granger Causality employed to determine short run and long run causality. The result of Cointegration reveals existence of one positive co-integrating equation. The result of Causality test show short run and long run causality run from GDP to exports. The result concludes that both in short and long run only growth in production cause exports growth. Safdari and Zaroki (2012), observed the effect of exports on economic growth (industry & mining sector, services and agriculture). The data were collected from 1961-2006 and were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model. The results of this study show that each section export growth has a positive effect on the growth of value added in the same section. But the effect of export growth on the value added in industry and mining sector is more than other sectors. Mehrabadi et.al (2012), examined the effects of oil and non-oil export on economic growth. Time series data and the method of VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) were used in the analysis. It was found that both oil and non-oil export had positive effect on the economic growth of Iran. Udude and Okulegu (2012), examined whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. It also tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. It was found that there exist a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP) and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC) was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. Noula et.al (2013), explored and quantified the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in Cameroon. It employs an extended generalized Cobb Douglas production function model, using food and agricultural organization data and World Bank Data from 1975 to 2009. The findings showed that the agricultural exports have mixed effect on economic growth in Cameroon. Coffee export and banana export has a positive and significant relationship with economic growth. On the other hand, cocoa export was found to have a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth. Javad et.al (2014), examined the relationship between exports and economic growth in the industrial sector in Iran. Based on the research results, the hypothesis of a positive impact of increased exports on the growth of the industrial sector in Iran is to be accepted. Ruba and Thikraiat (2014), examined the causal relationship between economic growth and exports in Jordan using the Granger methodology in order to determine the direction of the relationship between the two variables during the period 2000-2012. The study found that there is a causal relationship going from the economic growth to Export, and not vice versa. Turan and Bernard (2014), observed the relationship between export, import and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Albania by using annual data for the period between 1984 and 2012. Different empirical researches and macro econometric models indicates that there is an equilibrium relationship between exports, imports and GDP in the long term. Based on the study done, the imports have negative relationship with GDP while exports have a significant positive relationship with GDP. Abogan et.al (2014), observed the impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2010. It examined the significant role of non-oil export on economic growth which the previous studies might have ignored and the aggregate non-oil exports data used by them might bias their conclusions. This study revealed that the impact of non-oil export on the economic growth was moderate and not all heartening as a unit increase in non-oil export impacted positively by 29% on the productive capacity of goods and services in Nigeria during the period. Mohsen (2015), investigated the role of oil and non-oil exports in the Syrian economic over the period of 1975-2010. The cointegration test indicates that GDP is positively and significantly related to oil and non-oil exports. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional short-run causality relationships between GDP, oil exports and non-oil exports. There are also bidirectional long-run causality relationship between non-oil exports to GDP, and unidirectional long-run causality relationship running from oil exports to GDP. The study result indicates that oil exports have the biggest effect on the GDP. Syed et.al (2015), estimated the relationship between Gross domestic product (GDP) and agricultural and non-agricultural exports for Pakistan employing Johansen co-integration technique by using secondary data for the period 1972-2008. It was found that agricultural exports have a negative relationship with economic growth of Pakistan while non-agricultural exports have positive relation with economic growth. Istaiteyeh and Ismail (2015), analyzed the relationship between foreign direct investment, economic growth and exports in Jordan. The co-integration method and vector error correction model were applied. The results confirm the existence of long-term causal links between variables studied. The results show a positive impact of export on GDP, rather foreign direct investment has no effect on GDP.
CHAPTER FOUR
PRESENTATION ANALYSIS INTERPRETATION OF DATA
Introduction
Efforts will be made at this stage to present, analyze and interpret the data collected during the field survey. This presentation will be based on the responses from the completed questionnaires. The result of this exercise will be summarized in tabular forms for easy references and analysis. It will also show answers to questions relating to the research questions for this research study. The researcher employed simple percentage in the analysis.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
Introduction
It is important to ascertain that the objective of this study was to ascertain assessment of oil and oil exports on Economic of Nigeria from 1995 to 2018. In the preceding chapter, the relevant data collected for this study were presented, critically analyzed and appropriate interpretation given. In this chapter, certain recommendations made which in the opinion of the researcher will be of benefits in addressing the challenges of oil and oil exports on Economic of Nigeria from 1995 to 2018
Summary
This study was on assessment of oil and oil exports on Economic of Nigeria from 1995 to 2018. Three objectives were raised which included: To determine the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on investment in Nigeria, to determine the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria, to examine the relationship between oil and non-oil export on real Gross Domestic Product. In line with these objectives, two research hypotheses were formulated and two null hypotheses were posited. The total population for the study is 200 staff of CBN, Uyo. The researcher used questionnaires as the instrument for the data collection. Descriptive Survey research design was adopted for this study. A total of 133 respondents made HRM, economic analysts, senior staff and junior staff were used for the study. The data collected were presented in tables and analyzed using simple percentages and frequencies
Conclusion
In response to Nigeria’s economic problems which were caused by the mono-cultural nature of the economy (a situation where Nigeria depends heavily on the exportation of crude oil), this study has examined the contribution of non oil exports on the growth of the economy. The study has established a positive and significant relationship between the non-oil exports and Nigeria’s economic growth proxied by GDP. That is non-oil exports contributed significantly to the growth of Nigeria’s GDP.
Recommendation
Nigeria government should diversify her export from oil to non-oil because despite the huge revenue from oil, it impacted negatively on the economic growth of the country. Also, government should ensure that all the refineries are working up to date so that the country can depend less on the importation of finished product.
References
- Abogan, O.P, Akinola, E.B and Baruwa, O.I (2014), Non-oil export and Economic growth in Nigeria (1980-2011). Journal of Research in Economics and International Finance (JREIF), Vol. 3(1), pp.1-11.
- Abayomi, A.,Adam, S.O and Alumbugu, A.I (2015), Oil Exportation and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Developing Country Studies, Vol. 5, No 15, pp83-92.
- Adel Shakeeb Mohsen (2015), Effects of Oil and Non-Oil Exports on the Economic Growth of Syria. Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 1, No.2, pp69-78.
- Adedokun Adeniyi, J. (2012), Oil Export and Economic Growth: Descriptive Analysis and Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences: 9(1): pp46-58.
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- Baghebo, M and Timothy, O.A (2013), The impact of Petroleum on economic growth in Nigeria. Global Business and Economic Research Journal, Vol. 1(5), pp102-115.
- Giles, J.A. and C.L. Williams (2000a), Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Causality Results, Part 1. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9, 261-337.
- Istaiteyeh, M.S and Ismail, M.I (2015), A causal Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Export: Empirical Case For Jordan. Advances in Management and Applied Economics, Vol. 5, No 4, pp19-30.
- Javad, N.A, Abbsi, G and Baseri, B (2014), Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in the industrial sectors in Iran. Kuwait Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, Vol.3, No8, pp105-117.
