A Statistical Analysis on the Impact of Birth and Death Rates on Nigeria’s Economy. (a Case Study of Osun State)

A Statistical Analysis on the Impact of Birth and Death Rates on Nigeria’s Economy. (a Case Study of Osun State)

Chapter One

Objectives of the study

To know if the economy can be predicted from the birth rate.
To know if there is a relationship between birth rate and the economy of Nigeria.
To know if there is a relationship between death rate and the economy of Nigeria.
To predict the economy of Nigeria using the birth and death rates.
To know the nature of the relationship that exists amongst birth rate, death rate and the economy of Nigeria.
To recommend ways of ensuring adequate documentation of birth and death rates.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

THEORETICAL LITERATURE

The nature of the relationship between birth and death rates and economic growth has so attracted the attention of a large number of the world’s most influential thinkers that most of them have started propounding theories to explain the relationship. Generally the various explanations of the relationship between birth and death rates and the society have focused on the causes of population growth, the consequences of increase or decrease of birth and death rates, and the responses of people to birth and death rates. Most of the early writers on population growth were very much concerned with the need to balance population with resources.

According to Okafor (2004:84), population is a critical factor in the development plans of any civilized society. For effective planning for the development of developing countries, it is necessary to have an actual count of the population i.e. in form of an accurate census. This will enable government to know how many people to whom they should distribute amenities and social services.

According to Udabah (2002:59), it is a central problem of economic development. If the population of a nation expands as fast as national income, per capita income will not increase. When population expands rapidly, a country may by great effort raise the quantity of capital only to find that a corresponding rise in population has occurred so that the net effect of its “growth policy” is that larger populations now maintained at the original low standard of living. Much of the problem of developing nations like that of Nigeria is due to population growth or the increase in birth rate. Most developing nations have made appreciable gains in income, like Nigeria do in exporting crude, but most of the gains have been eaten up (literally) by the increasing population.

On the other hand, the early Roman Christians and Islamic writers were largely in favour of population growth without showing concern for the need to balance the number of people with available resources. This attitude was apparently influenced by high mortality, which characterized the period.

THEORIES 0F POPULATION GROWTH/INCREASE IN BIRTH RATE

Most world thinkers or philosophers have in recent times been attracted by the nature of the relationship between birth and death rates and the socio economic system of a given geographical zone. This attraction gave rise to the postulation of so many theories of population. Among these theories, they can be classified into three classes or school of thoughts.

The pessimistic theorist (The Malthusian theory).
The optimistic theorist (Marxist theorist)
Liberal theorist.

THE MALTHSIAN THEORY

Thomas Malthus was an English clergyman who lived from 1766-1834. He was widely known as the first professional demographer. It was during the period of the physiocrate thinking in the 18^th century that he postulated his theory. He had the most influential work relating to population growth and its consequences. He was the first man to draw out in a systematic way a picture that links the consequence of growth to its causes. His theory of population growth can be broken into eight major points based on evolution.

Population level is severely limited by subsistence.
When the means of subsistence increases, population increases.
Population pressures stimulate increase in productivity.
Increase in productivity stimulates further population growth.
Since the productivity can never keep up with the potential of population growth for long, there must be strong checks on population to keep it in line with carrying capacity.
It is through individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and children that population and production are expanded or contracted.
Checks will come into operation as population exceeds subsistence level.
The nature of these checks will have significant effects on the rest of the socio cultural system, Malthus points specifically to misery, vice, and poverty.

Due to the above outlined points from Malthus theory of population growth, he can then be regarded as a key contributing element of the canon of socioeconomic theory. For clarity we can simply compress the above points into three major parts:

Causes of population growth
Consequences of population growth
Avoiding the consequences of population growth.

According to Malthus, “the power of population is so superior to the earth to produce subsistence for man that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active e and able minister of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence and plague advance in terrific array and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. He also reviews that on the population growth he perceived the critical importance of population growth to standard of living in early nineteenth century. He asserted two relations concerning rates of increase.

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the various methods and techniques used to collect and analyze the data gathered for the study to gain a deeper understanding of the topic under study.

The data collection stage is important since the result of the analysis is dependent on the quality of the data obtained. Therefore, the method selected for data collection must be the most appropriate to assist in achieving the objectives of the study:

RESEARCH DESIGN

The type of research design for this study is exploratory and it is conducted because a problem has not been clearly defined. It helps to determine the best research design, data collection method and selection of subjects.

Primary ways which are Literature Research, talking to experts in the area of study and interview method were also employed.

POPULATON OF STUDY

Population is defined as the total number of persons in a particular situation. It is the totality of all cases which possesses a set of well-defined characteristic or conforms to some design. It is the entire group of items which the researcher wishes to study and plan to generalize on. However, in this research, the population will comprise of medical practitioners and some selected patients in the federal medical center owerri.

DATA COLLECTION METHOD

This study utilizes primary data extracted from the central bank statistical bulletin from 2000 – 2014.

MODEL SPECIFICATION

The model for the study comprises of two constructs as described below:

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

This chapter is devoted to the presentation, analysis and interpretation of the data gathered in the course of this study. The data used for this study is secondary data from the central bank of Nigeria 2012 statistical bulletin. The data are been analyzed using regression.

CHAPTER FIVE

FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The objectives of the study was to

To know if the economy can be predicted from the birth rate.
To know if there is a relationship between birth rate and the economy of Nigeria.
To know if there is a relationship between death rate and the economy of Nigeria.
To predict the economy of Nigeria using the birth and death rates.
To know the nature of the relationship that exists amongst birth rate, death rate and the economy of Nigeria.

Findings from the study revealed the following

There is a significant relationship between birth rate and the economy of Nigeria.
There is a significant relationship between death rate and the economy of Nigeria.
There is a significant relationship between birth rate, birth rate and the economy of Nigeria.

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