A Statistical Analysis on the Fertility and Mortality Rate in Nigeria (a Case Study of Osogbo Local Government in Osun State)

A Statistical Analysis on the Fertility and Mortality Rate in Nigeria (a Case Study of Osogbo Local Government in Osun State)

CHAPTER ONE

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To know if the economy can be predicted from the fertility rate.
To predict the economy of Osogbo Local Government using the fertility and mortality rate.
To know the nature of the relationship that exists amongst fertility rate and mortality rate the economy of Osogbo Local Government.
To recommend ways of ensuring adequate documentation of fertility and mortality rate.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

THEORETICAL LITERATURE

The nature of the relationship between fertility and mortality rate and economic growth has so attracted the attention of a large number of the world’s most influential thinkers that most of them have started propounding theories to explain the relationship. Generally the various explanations of the relationship between fertility and mortality rate and the society have focused on the causes of population growth, the consequences of increase or decrease of fertility and mortality rate, and the responses of people to fertility and mortality rate. Most of the early writers on population growth were very much concerned with the need to balance population with resources.

According to Okafor (2004:84), population is a critical factor in the development plans of any civilized society. For effective planning for the development of developing countries, it is necessary to have an actual count of the population i.e. in form of an accurate census. This will enable government to know how many people to whom they should distribute amenities and social services.

According to Udabah (2002:59), it is a central problem of economic development. If the population of a nation expands as fast as national income, per capita income will not increase. When population expands rapidly, a country may by great effort raise the quantity of capital only to find that a corresponding rise in population has occurred so that the net effect of its “growth policy” is that larger populations now maintained at the original low standard of living. Much of the problem of developing nations like that of Nigeria is due to population growth or the increase in fertility rate. Most developing nations have made appreciable gains in income, like Nigeria do in exporting crude, but most of the gains have been eaten up (literally) by the increasing population.

On the other hand, the early Roman Christians and Islamic writers were largely in favour of population growth without showing concern for the need to balance the number of people with available resources. This attitude was apparently influenced by high mortality, which characterized the period.

THEORIES 0F POPULATION GROWTH/INCREASE IN FERTILITY RATE

Most world thinkers or philosophers have in recent times been attracted by the nature of the relationship between fertility and mortality rate and the socio economic system of a given geographical zone. This attraction gave rise to the postulation of so many theories of population. Among these theories, they can be classified into three classes or school of thoughts.

The pessimistic theorist (The Malthusian theory).
The optimistic theorist (Marxist theorist)
Liberal theorist.

THE MALTHSIAN THEORY

Thomas Malthus was an English clergyman who lived from 1766-1834. He was widely known as the first professional demographer. It was during the period of the physiocrate thinking in the 18^th century that he postulated his theory. He had the most influential work relating to population growth and its consequences. He was the first man to draw out in a systematic way a picture that links the consequence of growth to its causes. His theory of population growth can be broken into eight major points based on evolution.

Population level is severely limited by subsistence.
When the means of subsistence increases, population increases.
Population pressures stimulate increase in productivity.
Increase in productivity stimulates further population growth.
Since the productivity can never keep up with the potential of population growth for long, there must be strong checks on population to keep it in line with carrying capacity.
It is through individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and children that population and production are expanded or contracted.

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the various methods and techniques used to collect and analyze the data gathered for the study to gain a deeper understanding of the topic under study.

The data collection stage is important since the result of the analysis is dependent on the quality of the data obtained. Therefore, the method selected for data collection must be the most appropriate to assist in achieving the objectives of the study:

RESEARCH DESIGN

The type of research design for this study is exploratory and it is conducted because a problem has not been clearly defined. It helps to determine the best research design, data collection method and selection of subjects.

Primary ways which are Literature Research, talking to experts in the area of study and interview method were also employed.

POPULATON OF STUDY

Population is defined as the total number of persons in a particular situation. It is the totality of all cases which possesses a set of well-defined characteristic or conforms to some design. It is the entire group of items which the researcher wishes to study and plan to generalize on. However, in this research, the population will comprise of medical practitioners and some selected patients in the federal medical center Osogbo.

DATA COLLECTION METHOD

This study utilizes primary data extracted from the central bank statistical bulletin from 2000 – 2014.

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

This chapter is devoted to the presentation, analysis and interpretation of the data gathered in the course of this study. The data used for this study is secondary data from the central bank of Nigeria 2012 statistical bulletin. The data are been analyzed using regression.

RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

Hypothesis 1

H₀ there is no relationship between fertility rate and economy of Osogbo Local Government.

H₁ there is a relationship between fertility rate and economy of Osogbo Local Government.

Level of significance: 0.05

Decision rule: reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than the level of significance or accept the null hypothesis if otherwise.

CHAPTER FIVE

FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The objectives of the study was to

To know if the economy can be predicted from the fertility rate.
To know if there is a relationship between fertility rate and the economy of Osogbo Local Government.
To know if there is a relationship between mortality rate and the economy of Osogbo Local Government.
To predict the economy of Osogbo Local Government using the fertility and mortality rate.
To know the nature of the relationship that exists amongst fertility rate, mortality rate and the economy of Osogbo Local Government.

Findings from the study revealed the following

There is a significant relationship between fertility rate and the economy of Osogbo Local Government.
There is a significant relationship between mortality rate and the economy of Osogbo Local Government.
There is a significant relationship between fertility rate, fertility rate and the economy of Osogbo Local Government.

REFERENCE

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Olubayo-FatiregunM.A.,&Aderonmu K. (2010). Motivation for Physical Activity Among Selected 15 and 17 year-old secondary school students in Lagos state, Nigeria. In proceeding.Of the 52nd ICHIPER-SD Anniversary World Congress, Doha, Qatar 199-200.
Onifade A. (2001). Sports and society in C.O.doh (Ed.). Issues in Human kinetics: Health promotion and education, pp123-156, Ibadan: Chris Rose ventures
Onifade, A. Oyewumi, I. A. (2005). Assessment of physical activity level among selected vocational groups in South-West, Nigeria. International Journal of Applied Psychology and Human Performances 2: 276-277.

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