Forecasting Cargo Growth and Regional Role of the Port of Nigeria

Forecasting Cargo Growth and Regional Role of the Port of Nigeria

CHAPTER ONE

Objective Of The Study

This study is aimed at;

1. Ascertaining the role of Nigerian port authorities.
2. Investigating if there are challenges impeding cargo growth in Nigeria.
3. Investigating the challenges militating against the effective development of Nigerian sea ports.
4. Examining the roles of forecasting in the development of sea ports in Nigeria.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

INTRODUCTION

Our focus in this chapter is to critically examine relevant literature that would assist in explaining the research problem and furthermore recognize the efforts of scholars who had previously contributed immensely to similar research. The chapter intends to deepen the understanding of the study and close the perceived gaps.

Precisely, the chapter will be considered in three sub-headings:

• Conceptual Framework
• Theoretical Framework
• Chapter Summary

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Forecast and Forecasting

There are many definitions identified in the literature of forecasting, some of which are more detailed, whereas others provide simple basic definitions such as projection of the future. The forecasting is the process of creating the forecast, which will explain and answer the questions of “what, where, how long and how large” (Kucharavy and De Guio, 2005). The forecasting process should be reliable, flexible, transparent and cost effective. The output of the forecasting process is forecast, or the results, which is related to the terms of accuracy, intelligibility, validity and bias free. Many definitions of forecasting were argued by many researchers, however, they all agreed that forecasting is the process to know what will happen in the future, in order to plan and manage the future events. The variations in defining forecasting are based on the use of forecast, process of forecasting, or duration of the forecast. Nash and Nash (2001) focused on the process of forecasting and defined it as “a very broad subject that draws upon all the knowledge, experience, intelligence and imagination of the forecaster” (p:10). Gaither (1992)argued that forecasting is used to describe the future for example forecasting the sales demand, cash flow or employment level. Geweke and Whiteman (2004) argued that “Forecasting involves the use of information at hand – hunches, formal models, data etc. – to make statements about the likely course of future events” (p:6). Willsmer (1984) said about forecasting “…it is universally recognised that the sales forecast is the bedrock from which all others stem”(p:12). Lancaster and Reynolds (2005) agreed with Willsmer (1984) and talked about the managerial application of the forecast saying that “forecasting is important in most areas of the firm, but forecasting of sales is particularly important since predicted sales are the base on which all company plans are built” (p:101). Armstrong (2001) mentioned that forecasting is a part of a bigger circle in business and organisations that will organise and contribute to the future of organisational success. Foresight goes a further step than forecasting as it includes aspects of networking and preparation of decisions concerning the future. Moreover, foresight answers the question of what does a result of a future study mean for the present. Foresight differs from planning, as will be explained in section (2.3.1); foresight results would give information about the future and, therefore, it is only one step in the planning to make decisions (Cuhls, 2003). Coates (1985) formulated the foresight more broadly: “Foresight is the overall process of creating an understanding and appreciation of information generated by looking ahead. Foresight includes qualitative and quantitative means for monitoring clues and indicators of evolving trends and developments and is best and most useful needs and opportunities for the future… Foresight is, therefore, closely tied to planning. It is not planning – merely a step in planning” (p:30).

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CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

In this chapter, we described the research procedure for this study. A research methodology is a research process adopted or employed to systematically and scientifically present the results of a study to the research audience viz. a vis, the study beneficiaries.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Research designs are perceived to be an overall strategy adopted by the researcher whereby different components of the study are integrated in a logical manner to effectively address a research problem. In this study, the researcher employed the survey research design. This is due to the nature of the study whereby the opinion and views of people are sampled. According to Singleton & Straits, (2009), Survey research can use quantitative research strategies (e.g., using questionnaires with numerically rated items), qualitative research strategies (e.g., using open-ended questions), or both strategies (i.e., mixed methods). As it is often used to describe and explore human behaviour, surveys are therefore frequently used in social and psychological research.

POPULATION OF THE STUDY

According to Udoyen (2019), a study population is a group of elements or individuals as the case may be, who share similar characteristics. These similar features can include location, gender, age, sex or specific interest. The emphasis on study population is that it constitute of individuals or elements that are homogeneous in description.

This study was carried out on forecasting cargo growth and regional role of the port of Nigeria using Apapa Sea Port of Lagos State as case study. The population of this study comprise of the staff of Apapa sea port.

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

This chapter presents the analysis of data derived through the questionnaire and key informant interview administered on the respondents in the study area. The analysis and interpretation were derived from the findings of the study. The data analysis depicts the simple frequency and percentage of the respondents as well as interpretation of the information gathered. A total of sixty seven (67) questionnaires were administered to respondents of which fifty (50) were returned and all were validated. For this study a total of  50 was validated for the analysis.

DATA PRESENTATION

The table below shows the summary of the survey. A sample of 67 was calculated for this study. A total of 50 responses were received and validated. For this study a total of 50 was used for the analysis.

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

Introduction

This chapter summarizes the findings on forecasting cargo growth and regional role of the port of Nigeria using Apapa Sea Port of Lagos State as case study. The chapter consists of summary of the study, conclusions, and recommendations.

Summary of the Study

In this study, our focus was on forecasting cargo growth and regional role of the port of Nigeria using Apapa Sea Port of Lagos State as case study.The study is was specifically focused on ascertaining the role of Nigerian port authorities, investigating if there are challenges impeding cargo growth in Nigerian, investigating the challenges militating against the effective development of Nigerian sea ports, and examining the roles of forecasting in the development of sea ports in Nigerian.

The study adopted the survey research design and randomly enrolled participants in the study. A total of 50 responses were validated from the enrolled participants where all respondent are staff of Apapa Port, Lagos State.

Conclusions

Based on the findings of this study, the researcher made the following conclusion;

1. The Nigerian port authorities plays the following roles; develop, own and operate ports and harbours, provide safe and navigable channels, offer cargo handling and storage services, maintain port facilities and equipment and ensure safety and security.
2. There are evident factors impeding cargo growth in Nigeria.
3. Clearance delays, lack of effective strategies, poor management practices, increased freight rates, delay of import/export processes and security concerns are among many others the challenges militating against the effective development of Nigerian sea ports.
4. Forecasting will significant roles in the development of sea ports in Nigeria, among the roles include; it will serve as the bases for effective planning for development, it will facilitate Co-ordination and Control over port activities, it will aid the relevant authorities to predict the future of Nigerian ports, and it will aid the managerial officers to create a progressive direction for the development of ports.

Recommendation

Based on the findings the researcher recommends that;

1. There is need to strengthen the implementation of policy reforms measures and regulations which has been introduced in the sector. This will help to achieve desired goals in the area of ports operations, terminal management, administration and cargo growth in Nigeria.
2. The activities of the managerial staff should be monitored to ensure that corrupted practices do not prevail the sector.
3. Unqualified staff working with the posts should be trained to step up their competences.
4. New government policies should be enacted encouraging the establishment of new sea ports and jetties like the Dangote deep seaport project currently ongoing at Lekki – Lagos state outside Apapa area so as to reduce the growing pressures capable of creating road congestions due to increasing import and export of goods.

Recommendation For Further Studies

Since this study is delimited to only forecasting cargo growth and the regional role of ports in Nigeria, it is therefore ideal to conduct more studies on the impact of ports on Nigeria economy.

REFERENCE

1. Nigerian Ports Authority. Nigerian Ports Authority Handbook 2018/2019; Nigerian Ports Authority: Lagos, Nigeria, 2018. Available online: www.nigerianports.gov.ng (accessed on 26 February 2020).
2. Taaffe, E.J.; Morril, R.L.; Gould, P.R. Transport Expansion in underdeveloped countries: A Comparative Analysis. Geogr. Rev. 1963, 53, 32–49. [CrossRef]
3. Zhang, R.; Roe, M. Maritime Container Port Security: USA and European Perspectives Palgrave Macmillan; Springer International Publishing: Basel, Switzerland, 2018.
4. Seyoum, B. Export-Import, Theory, Practices and Procedures, 3rd ed.; Routledge: Abingdon, UK, 2009.
5. Burns, M.C. Port Operations and Management; CRC Press: Boca Raton, FL, USA, 2015.
6. Bird, J. The Major Seaports of the United Kingdom; Hutchinson: London, UK, 1963; p. 454.
7. Adepoju, O.O. Analysis of Logistics Network Systems in Shipping Operations of Selected Nigerian Seaports. Master’s Thesis, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria, 2015.

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