Time Series Analysis on the Rate of Typhoid Fever Cases in Abia State From 2001-2010 (a Case Study of ABSUTH)
Chapter One
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
The following are the aims and objectives of this study.
- To estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) whether it is increasing or decreasing for this period of 2001-2010.
- To estimate the seasonal variation of the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
- To predict rate of prevalent in future.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
According to Chwatt (1985) he observed that the causes of typhoid fever include:
- Inadequate human waste treatment
- Limited water supply especially in the urban areas
- Over burdened health care system
Typhoid fever is also caused by s.typi bacteria.
On mode of transmission he said that the causative organism of typhoid fever has no host other than human being it can be transmitted through the following ways.
- Through contact with acutely infected person or chronic carries.
- Direct contact from person to person through facial oral route.
- Through eating or drinking contaminated food or water.
- Heath workers can contact, if after working on an infected person and through laboratory accident.
- Through easting shellfish that have been contaminated by infected stools or urine.
- Through the ingestion of food or drink contaminated by the faeces or urine of infected people.
Bain (19940) was of the opinion that the symptoms of typhoid fever include;
- Abdominal pain which is estimated to 20-40%
- Fever up to 75% of patients has the following symptoms
Headache, Anorexia, cough, weakness, sore throat, Dizzines, muscle pains, Rash, Abdominal pain, malaise. Constipation or diarrhoea, rose-coloured sports on the chest and belly, Enlarge Spleen or liver, loss of appetite, Runny Nose, Nausea, Joint pains, Nose bleeds, Vomiting, vision changes e.t.c.
In 1970, the use of plaused medicaled resistance was introduced because of the increased mortality rate associated with the former treatment and this is a non-antibiotic drug. Later, antibiotic drug which is ampicillic (induced to bone marrow toxity) being prescribed at 1lg orally every 6 hours trimethoprim-sul-fane thozagole (tmp-Smz) is also being prescribed at one table twice a day. In 1994, cephalosporios were recommended for empirical antibiotic treatment of susceptible strains and is being prescribed at 1-2g one or twice a day for ten days. A 5-7 day therapy is sufficient for uncomplicated cases. Quinotones is antibiotics for multi-drug resistant infection mainly for styphi infections.
According to chwatt (1985) typhoid fever is a common world wide illness, transmitted by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the faces of an infected person, which contain the bacterium salmonella enterica. This bacteria perforate through the intestinal wall and are phagocytosed by macrophages. Chwatt (1985) also discover that the sources of infection of typical fever include;
Water that is contraindicated with feces
– Milk and daily product, inadequate pasteurization or improper handing and contamination with feces
CHAPTER THREE
DATA COLLECTION
SOURCES OF DATA
The data used in this research work is purely secondary data, collected from the medical record department of Abia start university teaching hospital from the monthly number of patients treated on typhoid fever.
METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS
The statistical tool employed in this work is the series analysis using the Buys-Ballot procedure to assess the trend and hypothesis test about β will be employed to test if there is significant increase or decrease on the number 2001-2010.
Simple linear regression was also used to test if there is significant correlation on the rate of people that was effected by typhoid fever from 2011-2010.
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
ANALYSIS OF DATA
This chapter deals with the complete decomposition of time series component using buys-ballot method, estimate of trend of the disease from 2001-2010, prediction for the future occurrence of typhoid fever disease for 2011-2012.
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
SUMMARY OF FINDING
Based on the findings, we discovered that the rate of typhoid fever has being on increase in recent times in Nigeria and this has created a great challenge to our professional in medical sector in particular and the society at large, considering the revelation from world health organization (WHO) that about one person out of every hundred (100) person’s suffering from typhoid fever which is caused by dissemination of salmonella typhi (S. typhi) of salmonella paratyphi mainly characterized by fever and abdominal pain.
However, the modes of transmission of typhoid fever which has being revealed to include through eating or drinking contaminated food or water and through contract with the actually infected person.
The statistical techniques employed in the analysis of data in this project work is time series analysis to determine if there is increase in trend and seasonal variations in the reported incident of typhoid fever from (2001-2010).
Therefore the summary from this research work revealed the following:
- The total number of reported cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010 was 1.272
- The estimated seasonal indices shows that there was 1.22 in the third quarter of the period in review, which is July August and September which could be attributed to the raining season because salmonella typhi, the bacteria responsible for the disease is usually gotten from infected foods and vegetables generally in our environment because water flood the whole place after rainfall thereby causing much contamination.
- Furthermore, the predicted quarterly cases of typhoid fever for 2011 and 2012 health year, shows that rate of the incidence will is 264 in 2011 and 13 232 in 2012 health year.
- Finally, this research work revealed that typhoid fever can be prevented and control though the improvement of sanitary measures, since the bacteria responsible for this illness only survive on human host and are spread by contaminated food and water, and infected persons should go to hospital for adequate treatment not involving in self –medication.
CONCLUSION
In view of the findings of this research survey, which seeks to investigate whether there is an increase in trend and seasonal variation in the reported cases of typhoid fever in Abia state. The following conclusions was dream from the findings, which include that between the period of 2001-2010, the trend has been on increase and we conclude that there is seasonal variation in the third quarter of the year under study which is July, August and September usually associated with raining season.
RECOMMENDATION
Based on summary of findings and conclusion draw in this research survey, the following recommendation is made,
- Typhoid fever infection could be reduced in our environment by improvement in hygiene (like proper removal of sewage).
- Individuals should boil their drinking water for used and cook their food properly.
- Insects like files and cockroaches should be take care of and hands should always be washed before eating with them.
- Vegetables and fruits should be washed properly before being eaten.
Generally, government should provide adequate drugs for the treatment of typhoid fever in government own hospital at a reduced cost so that it can be affordably by low income earners and public enlightenment campaign should be carried out in media, market to sensitize the general public on the causes, models of transmission, symptoms, treatments and ways of preventing and controlling this incidence of typhoid fever.
REFERENCE
- Chwatt, A.I (1985): Essential Management Carge Pub.co. English.
- Bain, F.E (1994): Basic Haematological Techniques. Mc Graw Hill, Pub.co .England.
- Holmgren J. (2005): Mucosal Immunity and Vaccines. Carge pub. Co. England.
- Clark B. (2004): Review of Viral Gastroenteritis, Mc Gran Hill, pub. Co. new Yorl.
- Ogbonna E.N (M.Sc): Statistics for Higher Education, EL demark Ltd publishers Ogui New layout, enugu.
- Nwachukwu V.O. (2005): Principles of Statistical Inference, Second and Third edition, zelon enterprises mile I Diobu port Harcourt.
- Uchendu B.A and DR Etuk E.H (2005) Basic statistics with applications, olu prints old stadium gate tetlew, Owerri.
- Nwobi F.N: Statistics I. (2004): Introduction inference, supreme publishers, Okigiwe road Owerri.
- Chatfiled C. (2004): The Analysis of time series: An introduction, Chapman and hall, CRC press, boca ration.
